We examine how political preferences shape household beliefs in the context of the 2025 Japanese Upper House election. In this election, the ruling coalition suffered a decisive defeat. We conducted two waves of an online survey administered two days before and two days after the election, with 1,000 respondents in each wave. The survey elicited expectations about the macroeconomic outlook, including one-year-ahead inflation. We find that supporters of the incumbent parties became significantly less optimistic after the election, while inflation expectations increased among respondents confident in their forecasts and perceived inflation uncertainty declined. Importantly, these effects are heterogeneous across individuals and are particularly pronounced among female and lower-income respondents. Our results suggest that partisan alignment shapes both the level and updating of macroeconomic expectations, with the magnitude of these effects varying systematically across individuals.
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