Purpose: A nomogram was reported that predicts diseasefree survival (DFS) after hepatic resection for patients with colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) between 2000 and 2004 at 11 institutions in Japan. We externally validated this nomogram from patients after 2005 at our hospital.
Method: Fifty patients with colorectal liver metastasis who had undergone a primary hepatic resection at Kyoto University Hospital from January 2005 to November 2009 were studied.
Results: Three year-disease free survival (DFS) rate was 48.0% and the median DFS time was 25.9 months. The nomogram C-index was 0.54. The nomogram score was similar in the recurrent group (
n=27) and the non-recurrent group (
n=23) (mean 6.96 vs. 5.26,
P=0.25). The DFS time of the high risk group (score ≥5) was shorter than that of the low risk group (score ≤4) (19.5 M vs. 51.2 M), but not with statistically significance (
P=0.28). Among the 24 patients who received FOLFOX/FOLFIRI as neoadjuvant chemotherapy for liver metastasis, patients were divided into responders (CR+PR) and non-responders (SD+PD). Although the mean nomogram score of each group was similar (7.40 vs. 7.92,
P=0.84), the 3-year DFS rate was significantly higher in the responders than the non-responders (70.0% vs. 28.6%,
P=0.02).
Conclusion: This study suggests that we should be discreet in applying this nomogram to patients receiving perioperative chemotherapy. At present, perioperative chemotherapy with new drugs might affect the disease-free survival after hepatectomy, suggesting that a new nomogram needs to be established.
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