Long-term stroke survivors do not necessarily have a stable disability after a period of recovery. The purpose of this study was to test predictability of degree of decline in activities of daily living (ADL) late after stroke.
Subjects were outpatients with a more than one-year history of stroke at one local hospital. Ninety-six outpatients, who maintained mobility and had adequate cognitive function, were included. ADL was measured twice over a 12-month interval by the 5 item of Barthel Index (Hobart & Thompson, 2001). Before the follow-up investigations, 36 subjects dropped out. The remaining 60 subjects (36 males, the mean age of 71.4 years) provided full data for the analyses of ADL decline. Latent curve analysis method was used to predict longitudinal linear change in ADL. Predictor variables were age at baseline, motor dysfunction of lower limb, and walking outdoors, which were identified as a potential prognostic factor, using odds ratio of logistic regression analysis. Dependent variables were an intercept factor (the initial level of ADL) and slope factor (the degree of subsequent ADL annual change).
Comparisons between the analyzed and drop-out subjects showed no significant difference in the characteristics. The analyzed subjects showed that initial ADL disability was associated with the subsequent ADL decline. Increasing age and persistence of severe motor dysfunction of lower limb were both significantly associated with a larger degree of annual ADL decline. Walking outdoors had the opposite effect.
The results show the possibility of identifying subjects with worse prognoses (faster ADL deterioration) in chronic period of stroke, suggesting the predictability of individual variations in ADL decline late after stroke.
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