Many studies have shown that ticket revenue is a key income source and is the basis for the stable operation of many professional sport clubs. However, in the case of Japan, lower-league clubs suffer from low ticket revenue. Therefore, to improve the current situation, we propose a method to predict audience behavior intentions. This study examined the influence of emotions experienced by home fans in previous home games on behavioral intention in the B3 League (Japan Professional Basketball League division 3). The audiences of the teams KAGOSHIMA REBNAISE, OKAYAMA TRYHOOP, and IWATE BIGBULLS at their home games between January and April, 2022, were surveyed with 569 responses and 442 valid responses (77.7%). In addition, the sample was randomly divided into two parts, with one part used for exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and the other for model validation. The model that integrated the factors of emotion into two factors, “positive emotion” and “negative emotion,” was the best model, and it met the fit index. In the optimal model, it was found that “positive emotion” has a direct positive effect on behavioral intention. The study also confirmed that “emotion” was the dominant factor in “team identification,” “fan community identification,” and “local attachment”. These results reveal that in the model structure proposed in this study, by understanding the emotions of home fans associated with watching sports games, it is possible to clarify the behavioral intentions of spectators and increase ticket revenue.
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