In 2004, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism set up Panel on Inspection and Maintenance of Vehicles. The panel investigated on the negative impacts of the extention of validity period of vehicle inspection certificate and drew a conc lude that the extention would cause severe harmful effects. However, the estimation of vehicle failure rate by the panel had many problems. In this paper, we propose a hazard model that can resolve the problems in the estimation by the panel. We estimate the hazard model using the same data with that used by th e panel. Based on the estimation results, we point out the possibility that the estimates of negativ e impacts by the panel was overestimation.
The service industry has come to participate in many economic activities, but there are few studies, which analyze on the hierarchical organization location of a service industry enterprise that treats information. We propose a hierarchical organized location model, which endogenously determines the number of hierarchies. Furtheremore, We propose a MCMC based statistical method to obtain parameter distributions corresponding to the observed macro emplowment distribution as well as the saralies paid. By using our model, we analyzed the regional disparities about the number of employees and the wage. We found that the change of the regional disparities is caused by internal factors such as the industrial structural change, rather than external factors such as traffic condition changes.
The deterioration process of pavement is a complex process including the deterioration of road surface and the decrease in load bearing capacity of the entire pavement. The decrease in load bearing capacity influences the deterioration rate of road surface. The soundness of road surface can be observed by a road surface condition investigation. On the other hand, the decrease in load bearing capacity can be partially observed through the FWD testing, etc. In this study, such a deterioration process of road surface is described as a mixed Markov process that depends on the load bearing capacity of pavement. Then, the complex deterioration process, which is composed of the deterioration of road surface and the decrease in load bearing capacity of pavement, is expressed as a hierarchical hidden Markov deterioration model. Through a case study of the application into the expressway, a hierarchical hidden Markov deterioration model is estimated, and its applicability and effectiveness are empirically discussed.
This paper shows a comparative analysis between France and Japan on the way of the local governments' involvement in nuclear safety governance through some interviews. In France, a law came into force that requires related local governments to establish "Commision Locale d'Information" (CLI), which means the local governments officially involve in nuclear regulatory activity. Meanwhile, in Japan, related local governments substantially involve in the operation of nuclear facilities through the "safety agreements" in spite of the lack of legal authority. As a result of comparative analysis, we can point out some institutional input from French cases as follows: to clarify the local governments' roles in the nuclear regulation system, to establish the official channels of communication among nuclear utilities, national regulatory authorities and local governments, and to stipulate explicitly the transparency as a purpose of safety regulation.
This paper develops a large-scale simulation model of international maritime container shipping industry considering optimal behaviors of both shippers and oceangoing carriers, in order to measure impact of port and international logistics policies for each country including Japan. Concretely, the authors develop a short-term model (income maximization model of carriers) including shippers' choice of carrier when maritime cargo shipping demand between ports are given and a mid-term model (Nash equilibrium model of shippers and carriers) including shippers' choice of import/export port and route of hinterland transport and carriers' profit maximization behavior when cargo shipping demand between regions are given. The developed model is applied to the actual large-scale international maritime container shipping network in Eastern Asia. From a trial calculation based on the actual cargo shipping demand, the performance of the model is validated in terms of convergency and reproducibility. Also, the sensitivity of the model output taking the actual port policies into account is confirmed.
This paper deals with a cost minimization problem of oceangoing carriers on a large-scale network of international maritime container shipping industry, in order to measure impact of port policies for each country including Japan. Concretely, the authors develop a model to decide ports to call and size of containership in each route by ocean-going carrier group, with consideration of construction of deeper berths to deal with enlargement of containership, decrease of various port charges per cargo by attracting cargos into one port, and congestion by exceeding aggregation. The developed model is applied to the actual large-scale international maritime container shipping network in Eastern Asia. The performance of the model developed is validated. Also, the sensitivity of the model output is confirmed from the viewpoints of economy and diseconomy of scale included in the model.
The recently-initiated policy of extending the life time expectancy for residential housing is expected to be associated with multiple objectives such as reduction in environmental load and an increase in the value of housing asset. This study formulates a matching model of housing market where households, being motivated by their change in needs for housing service, search new houses, in order to investigate the policy effect on the market equilibrium. Since the tradability of the secondhand houses is restrictive, the policy may bring about a decrease of the asset value and an increase in mismatching of households' needs. The study further examines the effect of complementary policy that enhances the trading capacity of the secondhand market.
This paper analyzes the government's defensive and disclosure strategies to reduce the damage caused by terrorists that attack critical infrastructures using subjective game theory. The government recognizes a terrorist as a hidden opponent and the government's decision making about the policies against terror attacks depends on the belief about the existence of terrorist. In addition, it is not necessarily true that the government and the terrorist play the common game and make their decisions. Considering these points, the paper formulates the model in which the government and the terrorist formulate the subjective games respectively, and they induce the strategies using the equilibriums of their subjective games. The paper concluded that the government's disclosure about the implementation of the countermeasure, rather than the disclosure of warning level related with the belief about the existence of terrorist, brings about the higher increment of the subjective payoffs of the government.
In this study, we develop and propose the Safety-Behavior-Indicative Flood Hazard Map. This is the new-type flood hazard map that can surely indicate and instruct the safety behavior in flood disaster according to a dwelling condition and a flooding condition without requiring a readers' good understanding of the risk-information published in the hazard map and a scrupulous risk-communication between residents and the government. In this paper, we describe the significance, the method and the development of the Safety-Behavior-Indicative Flood Hazard Map, and measure an effect of the map on the reduction in residents' unsafe evacuation in flood disaster.
In this paper, an optimal management model is formulated for the performance-based rehabilitation/maintenance contract for airport concrete pavement, whereby two types of life cycle cost risks, i.e., ground consolidation risk and concrete depreciation risk, are explicitly considered. The non-homogenous Markov chain model is formulated to represent the deterioration processes of concrete pavement which are conditional upon the ground consolidation processes. The optimal non-homogenous Markov decision model with multiple types of risk is presented to design the optimal rehabilitation/maintenance plans. And the methodology to revise the optimal rehabilitation/maintenance plans based upon the monitoring data by the Bayesian up-to-dating rules. The validity of the methodology presented in this paper is examined based upon the case studies carried out for the H airport.