Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)
Online ISSN : 2185-6540
ISSN-L : 2185-6540
Volume 72 , Issue 5
Showing 1-50 articles out of 123 articles from the selected issue
Infrastructure Planning and Management Vol.33 (Special Issue)
  • Takashi AKAMATSU, Minoru OSAWA, Takeshi NAGAE, Hiromichi YAMAGUCHI
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_1-I_19
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    In the Great East Japan Earthquake on 11th March, 2011, the Tohoku region was faced with serious gasoline shortages for an extended period due to the severe damage on its only oil refinery and the major oil terminals on the Pacific coast by the earthquake and subsequent tsunami. Such gasoline shortages not only hampered relief and restoration efforts but also dampened socio-economic activities in the entire Tohoku region. In this study, using actual data, we first clarify that the fundamental reason for the gasoline shortages was a failure in adjusting the amount and shipping patterns of gasoline in response to the spatial changes in the production areas caused by the disaster. We then show that the gasoline shortages could have been reduced considerably by some post-disaster gasoline distribution strategies to redirect a certain amount of gasoline into the Tohoku region from other unaffected areas. It is also discussed that a traditional price adjustment policy is not suitable for mitigating socio-economic losses due to such large-scale disaster. Finally, we estimate the cost required to execute such a gasoline distribution strategy as well as its economic effect, demonstrating that although the cost is only 300 million yen, the benefit amounts to over 200 billion yen.
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  • Tsuyoshi HATORI
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_21-I_39
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    This study explores the relevant role and issues of public deliberation regarding infrastructure projects and develops a theoretical framework to ensure the legitimacy of social decision-making through the overall content of various deliberative practices. Introducing the concept of discourse system, it points out that public discourses consist of micro discourses focusing on specific public deliberation and macro discourses focusing on the whole discourse system. It is suggested that public involvement serves to connect the micro and macro discursive spheres. Finally, on the basis of the framework of discourse system, basic principles, methodology for empirical analysis, and important issues to evaluate the appropriateness of deliberative practices are discussed.
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  • He CHEN, Kayoko ODA, Mamoru TANIGUCHI
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_41-I_50
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Visualizing the environmental balance of consumption from human activity and natural environmental capacity is extremely important to improve sustainability. This study proposes a “Meteor-gram” as a method of visualization. This improved ecological footprint indicator and bio-capacity indicator presents the environmental balance of the past, present, and future. Results show that: 1) the environmental balance of the past 50 years has been worsening year-by-year; 2) population 1 decline and other factors are restoring the environmental balance in some places; 3) balancing environmental consumption and capacity depends on environmental load reduction measures; 4) potential improvement differs greatly among cities.
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  • Ryuji KAKIMOTO, Yasuaki UENO, Mamoru YOSHIDA
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_51-I_63
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    It suggests the existence of a risk perception paradox that high risk perception does not always lead to personal protective actions. The existence of a risk perception paradox implies that it is not enough for promoting personal protective actions just to improve risk perception. The aim of this study inspects the existence of a risk perception paradox from an interdisciplinary review of previous studies about risk perception and behavioral response regarding natural hazards in Japan. Then, points and frames of the previous studies pigeonhole based on the protection motivation theory, and the comprehension of personal protective actions is stimulated. Further, the precautionary evacuation behavior in Aso area is analyzed based on the protection motivation theory and the factors of the gap between their risk perception and behavior is found. Consequently, if coping appraisal is low, it is confirmed that there are instances where personal protective actions are spoiled even if thread appraisal is high. Therefore it is indicated that improvement of coping appraisal has a potential to dissolve the risk perception paradox.
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  • Hiroaki SHIRAYANAGI, Yukisada KITAMURA
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_65-I_72
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    In Japan, by low birthrate and aging population recently, the accumulation of the enormous social capital infrastructure is brought to a crisis progressively. To secure a comfortable civic life, we must advance an argument to minimize the expense of renewal and maintenance of the infrastructure maintaining the service level. However, in the small enterprise, the quantitative verification is still lack and difficult how to plan and perform the renewal and the maintenance of the sewerage systems from the long-term viewpoint with present service level.
    In this study, we quantitatively show the renewal and maintenance methods and cycle periods of pipe lines considering the asset management of the sewerage systems. Firstly, we propose the possibility of degradation per the standard length because of the unified point of view in the sewerage pipe. Comparing with the standard possibility the possibility of degradation per the sewerage pipe, we can grasp the deterioration conditions of the sewerage pipe lines.
    In addition to these deterioration's indexes, we propose the renewal rules about the follow-up period and repairing cycle about the renewal and the maintenance methods based on the possibility of severe structural degradation. By the practical applications of renewal rules, we quantitatively show that the cycle periods are extended, the maximum repairing length per year is relieved and the repairing length per year is levelling in this renewal project.
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  • Ryuichi HIRANO, Mihoko MATSUYUKI
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_73-I_82
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    In recent years, a bottom-up reconstruction planning process from a natural disaster is paid attention. In Aceh Province in Indonesia, where was devastated by the Great Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami in 2004, rehabilitation plan at the village level, called ‘village plan’, was developed by villagers with a support of donors.
    This paper examines the implementation of the village plan after almost ten years and tries to clarify factors affecting implementation. Five villages are selected for case study and interview to village heads, and questionnaire to villagers was conducted.
    As results, it is clarified that the implementation of the plan differs in each village. It is expected that linkage with local administration and the villagers' autonomy affects the realization and villagers' perception of their development plan and communication within a village improve their autonomy in community development.
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  • Tsuyoshi HATORI, Katsumi SEKI, Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI, Katsumi WAKIGAWA
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_83-I_102
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    In the event of a critical situation caused by volcanic disaster, a decision maker engaged in crisis management needs to select decision guides which are different from an ordinary decision mode. This study claims that relevant issues for volcanic crisis management change as disaster stages proceed and examines decision problems in each stage on the basis of the case of Mt. Usu. It also compares ordinary and emergent decision modes as the two decision modes for crisis management. Furthermore, it discusses the meta-principle to change decision modes according to the disaster stage and presents a normative framework to legitimize the change in decision modes through deliberative systems.
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  • Takanori NISHIKAWA, Naohiko HIBINO, Sigeru MORICHI
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_103-I_110
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Japan is prone to natural disasters and thus the immediate processing of disaster waste is an important issue to be addressed. In contrast to normal conditions, disaster waste processing requires temporary shelters, final disposal sites, and the promotion of such intermediate processing as recycling amidst post-disaster confusion. At the same time, since natural disasters vary in type, size, and location, it is difficult to standardize procedures for waste processing, allowing only for post-hoc remedial measures in many cases. This study investigated the disaster waste processing situations in the 2014 Hiroshima sediment-related disaster and the Great East Japan Earthquake using both interviews and quantitative analyses. A further focus was directed to small and middle-scale disasters to illuminate current issues and possible solutions. Results suggest the importance of appropriate precaution measures, accurate situation analysis, and uninterrupted execution of planned operations.
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  • Masato YAMAZAKI, Atsushi KOIKE, Yoshinori SONE
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_111-I_121
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    As economic losses caused by natural disasters increase, assessing the economic impact of a future possible natural disaster is becoming more and more important. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a strong candidate for such an assessment. The CGE approach is, however, criticized in that key parameters are often not econometrically estimated.
    The first purpose of this study is to calibrate a set of substitution parameters in a CGE model for the economic impact assessment of a natural disaster. The study develops a recursive-dynamic multiregional CGE model for Japan and then calibrates a set of substitution parameters for this model. A heuristic method is employed for the calibration, in which the substitution parameters in the CGE model are adjusted so as to reproduce the actual economic impacts of the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake.
    The second purpose of this study is to conduct a quantitative assessment of the economic impacts of inoperative oil refinery plants stemming from the Nankai trough great earthquake using the CGE model with the calibrated substitution parameters. The impacts on GDP, GRP, and production of the other industries are assessed.
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  • Tetsuo MIZUTA, Kakuya MATSUSHIMA, Katsumi SEKI, Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_123-I_138
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    This paper proposes a methodology to understand the contents discussed after disasters in the macro debate domain such as articles in newspapers, in order to evaluate the legitimacy of decision making in disaster emergency policies. The concept of ontology is utilized to formulate the structure of observed corpus. By conceptualizing the contents of newspaper articles as a part of macro debate, issues which should be concerned at decision making process after disasters are summarized. This methodology may contribute to the evaluation of decision making process of previous disasters and the proposal of effective emergency disaster policies for possible future disasters.
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  • Masakazu KAWASAKI, Toru HAGIWARA, Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI, Yasuhiro KANEDA, ...
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_139-I_147
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Snowstorm on roads create serious disaster in winter in Hokkaido, Japan. From 2 to 3 March 2013, one of Japan's largest disaster on roads due to snowstorm occurred in Eastern Hokkaido. Nine people were killed due to snowdrifts on roads, and many vehicles were trapped in snowdrifts. After this disaster, the Hokkaido Prefecture built up a risk communication systems in snowstorm aims to prevent and mitigate damage. From 16 to 19 February 2014, there was the same size snowstorm in 2013. However, damages in 2014 were small. The aim of this report is to identify how the risk communication systems work to affect reducing damages of snowstorm. We conducted questionnaire survey to the general public and hearing investigation to regional administrators and road administrators after 2014 winter season. Results of investigations indicated increasing risk awareness of various stake holders to snowstorm in winter. Also, it is indicated that countermeasures like enhancing the partnerships among various stakeholders, choosing the early road close and early information to recommend staying indoors to the general public were effective to reduce damages due to snowstorms.
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  • Takashi OHNO, Satoshi SUGIURA, Akiyoshi TAKAGI
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_149-I_158
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    In this study, we built a risk assessment approach for whole basin that treats the dike break as a probability event and takes into the relationship between upstream and downstream. In addition, we proposed the strategic decision-making approach for dike construction to minimize the flood risk of whole basin by using the risk assessment approach and confirmed its behavior by applying to assumed flood plain. As a result, we showed that the strategic decision-making of constructing the dike of low height in the upstream maximizes the social benefit depending on the conditions such as the land use in basin. In the future, we will refine the calculation method of the probability of dike break and the flood damage cost in order to apply this proposed strategic decision-making approach to the real river basin.
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  • Ryoji MATSUNAKA, Tetsuharu OBA, Dai NAKAGAWA, Masaki OKAMOTO, Kazuyuki ...
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_159-I_167
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    In recent years, many studies have made the advantages of compact cities clear. In this study, we classified one kilometer grid cells in Japan into 60 area characteristical categories, and analyzed the relationship between the area characteristics, road length, and road maintenance and renewal cost. As a result, we showed that there is many differences in road maintenance and renewal cost per capita among area characteristical categories. In addition, we estimated future road maintenance and renewal cost in two scenarios. The first, a scenario where population mitigation dose not occur, and a second that assume population concentrated in urban areas. As a result, we showed that road maintenance and renewal cost will be reduced if the population urbanizes, but the rate of reduction is 0.2%.
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  • Yuto KUBOTA, Shintaro TERABE, Makoto KASAI
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_169-I_176
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Newspapers are still thought of as important information sources and to strongly influence citizens' awareness and understanding of infrastructure. It would be beneficial for citizens to obtain information on various infrastructure issues easily through newspapers. This study investigates how much articles about infrastructure are included in newspapers published in both of Japanese and United States. The authors also compare the share of those articles with regard to number of articles, words, pictures, figures and tables. As a result, few such articles were found. News articles related to infrastructure are reported with more topics in United States than Japan. And those articles are written with the topics related not to development itself but to economy or accident. Thus, the government or planning authority is expected to increase dissemination through newspaper articles by preparing story behind the infrastructure development.
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  • Shinichi MUTO, Hisa MORISUGI, Haruki MATSUZAWA
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_177-I_190
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    The Japanese Government submitted a target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) in 2030 by 26% for emission level of GHG in 2013. It is an important issue to act the effective mitigation policies. On the other hand, it will be important to argue about adaptation policies, because flood disasters occur much more by local heavy rain or typhoon of bigger intensity, which are said to be due to the global warming.
    We built the optimal dynamic CGE model to evaluate mitigation or adaptation policies for global warming. By using the model, we calculate the automobile fuel tax rate to achieve emission reduction target under the condition that expressways will be constructed, and estimate damage cost of flood disaster considered capital reconstruction to evaluate adaptation policies.
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  • Tetsuya TAMAKI, Hirokazu TATANO
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_191-I_200
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    This study describes a method to estimate the impacts of traffic disruption caused by disasters. The proposed economic equilibrium model calculates the economic impacts by determining transportation costs endogenously. Other economic equilibrium models that consider traffic impacts generally treat transportation costs as exogenous variables. Since the trading amount associated with traffic disruptions is derivatively determined by regional economic activities, transportation costs are better calculated as endogenous variables. Algorithms to solve equilibrium problems with equilibrium constraints (EPECs) have recently been developed. We treat the economic equilibrium with traffic equilibrium as an EPEC and describe the potential of considering transportation costs as endogenous variables. Numerical experiments confirm the use of such a model to estimate the regional economic impacts of traffic disruptions.
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  • Keisuke SATO, Yasuaki KIKUKAWA, Atsushi KOIKE
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_201-I_211
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Spatial economic equilibrium model requires a inter-regional trade data as monetary term by Input-Output table. However, we only have the Input-Output table on the among nine region data in Japan. We need to prepare the another index to apply the economic equilibrium model, because the empirical policy analysis requires at more subdivided regional data. This paper shows the characteristic comparison between statistical data on inter-regional trade/freight data and inter-enterprise data as another index. At a conclusion, although we show the inter-regional freight census data by MLIT and inter-enterprise data by TDB is effective index to subdivide into small region, they have some problem. In this paper, we propose some measures to mitigate those problem at empirical analysis.
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  • Yuichiro KAWABATA, Kenji ASAI, Ayu MIYAKAWA, Satoshi FUJII
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_213-I_230
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    In various scientific fields from psychology to social sciences, experimental research on psychological and social effects of narrative-formed (or narrative-based) cognition and communication have been done since 1970s. In this study, we conducted a psychological experiment on how reading “narrative-formed policy scenarios” and participants' “narrative-orientedness” as personal psychological tendencies affects their attitudes toward public policies and discussed its applicability for the process of consensus building for public policies. The results show that reading narrative-formed texts and readers” narrative-orientedness, interacting with each other, have some statistically significant effects on the readers' attitudes. The results and the procedure of this experiment also give us implications about how to create “narrative-formed policy scenarios” and apply them to the real policy communications.
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  • Nobuhiro SAITO, Shintaro TERABE, Masai MUTO, Makoto KASAI
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_231-I_239
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Many railway companies survey customer satisfaction to listen to passengers and to improve service. Typical questions focus only on satisfaction about several aspects of current service such as on-time performance, travel time, service frequency, fare, as well as overall satisfaction. A personal attachment to the railway, a lack of attachment or negative experience, however, may bias answers from respondents. We have done customer satisfaction surveys, as approximately 10,000 passengers received our written questionnaire at stations in Tokyo. We used structural equation modelling to explain relationship between personal attachment and customer satisfaction. The results show that, statistically, passengers who were satisfied more with station facilities and staffs had stronger personal attachment to the railway. Duration of use, defined by number of years at their current residences, number of years using the railway and their local stations, positively affect personal attachment to railways. Passengers who were more impressed at tidiness also have stronger personal attachment. And those who had stronger personal attachment to the railway indicated that they would recommend using the railway to others and want to continue using the railway themselves. Hence, railway companies should keep the facilities clean and tidy so as to satisfy users and to engage users' sense of personal attachment to railways. Cultivating users' personal attachment to railways is one way of sustaining public use of railways.
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  • Yasumasa FUKUSHIMA, Takashi UCHIDA
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_241-I_249
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    In recent years the development of the urban river has been focusing on efforts for the environment and the water amenity besides the flood control and the water utilization, in some cases however, the residents along the river have failed to value and then water amenity has made little progress.
    This paper takes a case of the waterfront development of the small size river in an emerging built-up area. Going through several years after the project implementation, we take hold of the actual condition and the attitudes of residents by means of questionnaire survey to the inhabitants. This study performs respective analyses on the relationship between the factors towards the smooth implementation of the enterprise and the consensus formation and in urban riverside development considering development methods in order to promote the utilization with high evaluations from the inhabitants as concrete strategies.
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  • Takahiro MINAMI, Makoto FUJIU, Shoichiro NAKAYAMA, Jyunichi TAKAYAMA, ...
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_251-I_260
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Recently, some bridges which were built for the rapid economic growth period become obsolete all once in Japan. The percentage of bridges beyond 50 years after construction is about 18% in 2013, it becomes approximately 43% in 10 years and becomes approximately 67% in 20 years. There has been a great discussion about appropriate method of the maintenance of bridges in a limited budget. The regular inspection is carried out once in 5 years to grasp and diagnose the state of each material of bridges. The repair priority of each bridge is determined and recorded depending on health of respective components and importance of the bridge.
    However, the natural environments that each bridge is put are different, and it is expected that deterioration rate is different. So the priority decision of bridges have to be considered not only the soundness of bridges provided by a regular inspection and the importance of bridges but also natural environments.
    In this study, we analyzed the relationships between soundness of bridges and the natural environments using regular inspection data of Ishikawa Prefecture. Some bridges in Ishikawa Prefecture has been placed under the harsh environment. For example, the harsh environment are spraying antifreeze in the winter season, flying salt from the sea in the route facing the Sea of Japan, the fatigue of bridge by weight and the shock of the traffic vehicle in the urban area with much traffic and so on.
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  • Chizuru MORI, Teppei OSADA, Nobuaki OHMORI, Akinori MORIMOTO
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_261-I_268
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Utsunomiya-city is planning to introduce Light Rail Transit (LRT). However, there are skeptical or indifferent citizens towards the LRT plan. It is important to make these people get interested in LRT. Under the background, we developed three types of public relations (PR) tools to promote citizens' interest in machizukuri with LRT, which are virtual reality (VR), websites and augmented reality (AR). We conducted experiments of using the three tools for PR and analyzed changes in public awareness and effects of the tools before and after experiencing the PR. It was found that the PR using each tool was useful in promoting citizens' interest in machizukuri with LRT. Especially, AR had an advantage in building visual images of LRT and future travel behavior. Also we found that the effective PR tool was different depending on socio-economic characteristics.
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  • Takumi ASADA, Yuta TANAKA, Woramol CHAOWARAT, Mikiharu ARIMURA
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_269-I_275
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Recently, urban planning basic survey data is recorded both individual position information and a variety of building attribute information. For updating data, urban planning analysis will be increased in the future. In this study, we study affect building attribute in a residential life. The basic survey of city planning data in 2005-2013 is used to apply the survival analysis. The result of the analysis shows that the number of disappearances is decreased. In the other hand, the number of occurrences is increased. Moreover, the number of houses in city center is reduced, conversely, the number of houses in outskirts is increased. Therefore, the trend of residence will sprawl in future. After that, Proportional hazard model is applied to analyze variables of the building attribute information. The result found that the building life of wooden structure is longer than non-wood structure, percentage of the actual building coverage is higher, and the building storey is lower.
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  • Kosuke TANAKA, Satoshi FUJII
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_277-I_282
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    This study aim to clarify the bias of mass media reports. As a case, we analyzed how Japanese major newspapers reported the State of the Union Address. The consideration of the political direction of US, which has a strong economic relationship with Japan, would be helpful for Japanese politics. However it is written in English, so it is inevitable for Japanese citizens to obtain the information indirectly from mass media. In order to clarify the bias of mass media reports, we chose two major Japanese newspapers and compared the percentage of words about each policy in the whole address and in the articles. As a result, it is suggested that the percentage of words about neo-liberalism in the articles is 2.77 times more than in the address, however, on the other hand, the percentage of words about Keynesian economics in the articles is 0.30 times more than in the address.
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  • Satoru INOHARA,, Keita WATANABE, Kenji SUGIMOTO, Hirokazu KATO, Yoshit ...
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_283-I_291
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    It is important to develop the information of the resilience of the region for large-scale natural disasters in order to take measure of disaster prevention and disaster mitigation. This study tries to evaluation of regional resilience based on decrease in Quality of Life (QOL) after large -scale disasters by simulating direct damage and setting recovery scenarios. Result of applying Nankai Trough earth quake, QOL in the inland was recovered, but in the coastal area that suffered Tsunami damage, QOL of recovery was slow. By recovery scenarios of road assumed on the basis of the policy of “Kushi no ha operations” support advances from the areas along major highway surrounding area, showed that play an important role in QOL recovery.
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  • Daisuke FUKUDA, So-ichiro ENDO
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_293-I_303
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    This study examined the causal relationship between natural disasters and economic growth. We set up an econometric model to analyze cross-country and sector-based macroeconomic data jointly with several indices of natural disasters. We found that i) natural disasters may affect GDP growth positively but not statically significant; ii) for the growth of each economic sector the effect of natural disaster would be different. Furthermore, we found that major estimation results would be consistent with the hypothesis called “Productivity Effect of Natural Disasters” proposed by past theoretical studies.
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  • Kentaro KUMAGAI, Itaru EHIRO, Kenji ONO
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_305-I_316
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    The purposes of this study are to conduct a field survey on behaviour of group walking, and to propose a numerical simulation model for group walking and synchronization effect of tsunami evacuees. A field survey was conducted, and time-series data of group walking for tsunami evacuees were obtained at a tsunami evacuation drill using an evacuee tracking system. It was found that 90 percent of the evacuees walked in groups, and the others walked in a single or in a pair. Although the system needs accuracy enhancement of measurement, it was confirmed that each group was different in speed from the other groups. And it was also found that the group which passed through the measurement area first was the fastest in speed, the last group was the slowest in speed, and the other group was in the middle speed of the first group and the last group. A new model of group walking including a synchronization parameter was proposed, and a numerical simulation was conducted. It was found that the results of the simulation agree with the facts based on the field survey, although there were a few differences between the results of the simulation and the field survey in view of the speed of the group. Several reasons could be considered such as an effect of an evacuation leader at the front of the first group, and an applicability limit of the synchronization parameter model for groups consist of two or three persons.
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  • Akihito UJIIE, Junya FUKUMOTO
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_317-I_329
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Industrial agglomeration is of strong interest to not only academic researchers but also policymakers because Industrial agglomeration enhances corporate productivity. As a first step to understand phenomenon of industrial agglomeration, we need to reveal empirical characteristics of industrial agglomeration. Spatial cluster-detection analysis is one of the analyses understanding empirical characteristics of industrial agglomeration. A lot of cluster-detection methods have been proposed. However, there is little method that relaxes constraint on adjacency of geographical units that compose a spatial cluster. Constraint that requires exact adjacency may have significant impact on detected clusters and results of analyses using detected clusters. We propose a new cluster-detection method that relaxes constraint on adjacency of geographical units belonging clusters. Along the lines of model-based clustering, we assume spatial data arise through a probabilistic model. Employing Potts model on probabilistic model, we can relax constraints on adjacency. The results of case study show that our method can detect clusters consist of non-adjacent geographical units.
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  • Naotaka IKUTOMI, Takumi ASADA, Chawis BOONMEE, Mikiharu ARIMURA
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_331-I_339
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    In this study, we proposed evacuation behavior simulation for tsunami evacuation plans on the road with a real situation, and also aim to suppose smooth risk communication between the entries in the community. The probe data in a period of evacuation time is used to analyze in this study. On September 1, 2014, we surveyed awareness and observed the evacuation of moving track in a period of evacuation time on large-scale regional evacuation drills (Muroran shake-out) by using GPS device. Moreover, we analyzed the several scenarios in a multi-agent model that considering agent running in behavior rules by using the probe data of the target area. The result found that the ratio of alive evacuee before the first tsunami arrival was increased as 13 percentage.
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  • Makoto TSUKAI, Sosuke SHIINO
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_341-I_352
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    In order to improve a discussion management for local public transportation policy, topic extraction from discussion records should be elaborated enough to clarify the topic transition in a discussion. This study applied topic model developed in machine learning to the discussion records in local public transportation management, which is collected from 5 cities in local Japan from 2012 to 2015. In our application, 25 topics were obtained from 104,696 words. The obtained topics were well decomposed into different set of vocabularies, and enables to demonstrate topic transition.
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  • Shunsuke SEGI, Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_353-I_371
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    This study formulated a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations that can assess the intergenerational benefit distribution of infrastructure investment policy. This study applied the model to Japan in order to analyze the infrastructure investment policy and life-extension policy. This study derived following implications from the analyses. Infrastructure investment has a problem of intergeneration welfare's trade-off where the increased investment is beneficial for the future generations while the current generations make a loss. Intergenerational income transfer through public bond can efficiently mitigate this problem, but it temporally increases the outstanding bonds. Life-extension policy brings benefit to wider range of generations, including current generations. Therefore, the compensation to the generation, which make a loss from the life-extension policy, can be conducted within the current generations.
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  • Yuki OHIRA, Toshimori OTAZAWA
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_373-I_382
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Social interactions among economic agents that underlie the formation of cities are important for economic performance. There exist communication externalities in face-to-face interactions among agents. In addition, face-to-face contacts include travel behaviours so that they are inevitably accompanied by traffic congestions. Interaction choices depend not only on physical distance but also on social distance among agents, which is often measured using social networks. We consider the problem of implementing optimal levels of interactions. The planner would like to design a toll scheme under which an social optimum is achieved in the long-run without knowledge of the structure of social networks. In this paper, a second-best toll scheme is proposed in which the planner can lead an economy to an optimum by internalizing the externalities evaluated at current traffic in each period.
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  • Takumi ASADA, Shuichi KAMEYAMA
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_383-I_392
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    In this study, we have analyzed the characteristics of road landscape distribution in Furano-Biei area using panorama image from Google street view. First, the road landscapes were classified into 5 clusters based on the fractal dimension, sky share, and greenery share of 4 direction images from Google street view by applying the cluster analysis, and then the road landscape clusters distribution in target area was easily visualized. Furthermore, we reveled the road landscape characteristics in the area including the structural , diversity, and relationship with land use of landscape in individual area. It was shown that the effectiveness of the method for analysis of regional landscape.
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  • Ayu MIYAKAWA, Hiroki NISHI, Atsushi KOIKE, Ryo FUKUDA, Keisuke SATO, S ...
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_393-I_405
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Although it is important to understand the influence of consumer behavior on regional economy, as far as we know, no empirical research has been conducted in Japan. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify the economic impact of consumer's behavior on regional economy. We investigated two local merchants and four chain stores in Kyoto-city in order to compare the local economic return of consumption. As a result it was shown that if some shopping is done at local merchant, approximately 52% of consumption revenue will return to local economy, however if some shopping is done at chain store, the return rate will become about its half. This result suggests us about a desirable consumer behavior for regional vitalization.
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  • Tsuyoshi HATORI, Yuka KATAOKA, Makoto OZAKI
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_407-I_414
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Local communities can be improved through voluntary contributions from local residents. Civic activities, however, might not be sustained for a long time, as they require residents to make a certain amount of effort. The purpose of this study was to examine psychological factors influencing the sustainability of civic activities. For the purpose, a questionnaire survey was conducted targeting 597 residents in Ehime prefecture. In this survey, associations between several variables regarding the sustainability of civic activities and psychological variables such as place attachment and cultural capital were examined. Given the results, the issues related to regional policies to promote the sustainability of civic activities were discussed.
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  • Masashi KUWANO, Kei FUKUYAMA, Wataru INOUE
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_415-I_422
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Due to diversification of lifestyle and increasing number of nuclear families, weakened human relations, including those with family members, friends, and neighbors, have been prevailing. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationships between human ties in community and security feelings of residents. In order to analyze a real world social network, this study develops a social network model according to the attributes of the study area by using the survey and other available statistical data and by applying complex network analysis, so as to generate the social network according to any desired degree sequence. The simulation results using questionnaires collected in San-in region in 2014 provided empirical evidence for the effectiveness of the suggested approach. In addition, comparison of network indexes of the social networks demonstrated that social network properties are significantly different among the cities. The analysis of quantitatively effect of human ties on individuals' security feeling shows that the number of supporters and social network properties of community significantly influence on residents' security feeling.
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  • Kazuki IMAI, Tetsuji SATO, Nozomi KAMINAGA, Tatsuya SUGIMOTO, Shuji TA ...
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_423-I_434
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    In many Japanese cities, while population is predicted to be decreased in the future, concept of the compact city is attracting a lot of attention. In planning and developing a compact city, it is necessary to take into account mitigation of natural disasters and it is inefficient to gather facilities in vulnerable areas to natural disasters from the view point of maintenance of infrastructure. In this paper, the model which can estimate time series change of population distribution in a city considering the flood risk based on the location equilibrium theory is developed, and the empirical model for Toyama city which is famous for the compact city policy is constructed. With the empirical model, we verified the effect of the residential induction policy which Toyama city actually conducted, and analyzed the impacts of two policy options which are considered to reduce flood risk on population distribution in the city from 2010 to 2040. As results of the analyses, the impacts of the options are indicated as follows. The residential induction option which gives subsidy for household moving in specific areas increases population of the downtown area. The regulation option which prohibits new location of household in specific suburban areas decreases population of the areas. The recognition option which raises the risk recognition of the citizens increases population of suburban areas near the railway station or the LRT station.
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  • Hiroshi TATSUMI, Syuji YOSHIKI, Kayoko TSUTSUMI
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_435-I_445
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    It is important for revitalization of commercial area to create an enjoyable environment for everyone, which includes visitors with children, to walk around this area. The purpose of this paper is to examine the excursion behavior characteristics of visitors with children in commercial areas. The questionnaire survey was carried out in Tenjin area in Fukuoka city.
    The results show that the excursion behavior characteristics differ between visitors with children and others. The visitors with children have a low satisfaction with the excursion in Tenjin, and they are dis-pleased with paucity of entertainment and repose environment for children.
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  • Yuma TSUMURA, Ryoji MATSUNAKA, Tetsuharu OBA, Dai NAKAGAWA
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_447-I_459
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    This research aimed to verify the relationship between private vehicles dependence during the development periods of urban railways and the time-series change in environmental impacts of transport; targeting the surrounding areas of new urban railway stations in metropolitan regions of Japan.
    The analysis statistically showed that the environmental impact of transport would tend to decrease in areas with lower modal shares of private cars at the timing of urban railway development. On the other hand, it also suggested the rapidly increasing tendency of environmental impact in areas with larger vehicle use at the timing. However, it also revealed that new stations with high frequency departures would contribute to decreasing the environmental impact of transport in highly urbanized areas, even if they are considered auto-dependent.
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  • Yuu SUZUKI, Satoru HINO, Kotaro NAKAMURA
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_461-I_471
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    In recent years, the decline of the local community has become a problem. In this study, we focused on the community-building about local resident connection that depend on local children. That is a kind of connection not only exist between children, but also exist between local residents who knows each other by children. For example, “A connection start by a conversation with local children” or “go shopping with local resident who make the acquaintance of through children” and so forth. As a result of the analysis, the strong this kind of connection is, the big “effect recognition by connection to through the local children” and “relationship with residents” are. And also, “have a chance to talk to local children or not” is related to the awareness of community problem's solution has been proved. In conclusion, based on the result of “Structural Equation Modelling”, This kind of connection made “effect recognition by connection to through the local children” and “relationship with residents” happen. And also correlate with problem solving local residents.
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  • Kazuya INAGAKI, Yusuke HARA, Masao KUWAHARA
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_473-I_485
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    This paper aims at evaluating the facility accumulation of city center, focusing on spatial and categorical co-occurrence information of facilities. We expressed the co-occurrence information by relational data. We revealed the latent structure of the co-occurrence information by Extended Stochastic Block Model. We validated our approach by a case study in Osaka city center (around Namba station). We conclude that 1) the facility accumulation of the target area was classified by latent classes based on the co-occurrence information, 2) each latent class indicates its quantitative property, 3) the relationship between the latent classes correspond with their geographic distribution.
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  • Norimitsu KOIKE, Hiroto NAKASHIMA
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_487-I_494
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Recently, new estimation of tsunami damage has prompted the revision of evacuation plans in Japan. It is especially important to establish countermeasures for tourists who are not acquainted with the risk of places near the water. In this study, hotel manager's awareness of the tsunami risk was addressed through a questionnaire survey at Minami-Chita town, Aichi, Japan. The results of the survey showed that the difference in the manager's consciousness of disaster prevention relates to hotel countermeasure. Evacuation time at a hotel is earlier than at a “Minshuku,” which is a Japanese-style guest house. The evacuation time at hotels for many staying tourists is slower than hotels with day-trip guests. Many managers think their business will not be able to continue after a tsunami. For the improvement of the manager's consciousness, we proposed to carry out evacuation drills with organization related to the tourist business.
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  • Zhenyu GAO, Masanobu KII, Atsuko NONOMURA, Kazuki NAKAMURA
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_495-I_503
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Rapid urbanization in China releases huge development potential, meanwhile great challenges also been brought in residents' living and travelling. In this study, we focus on the variations of commuting and residential condition affected by urban expansion in past two decades. Objective remote sensing data is processed to redefine urban area. As deficiency of social survey in developing countries, Alonso's urban economic model is more simple and flexible to be applied. We developed the model by adding a house developer, which made it possible to measure residents' living. Five datasets of Harbin, China from 1994 to 2014 with five years intervals are tested to find some implications.
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  • Takahiko YAMADA, Eizo HIDESHIMA, Naoyuki NAGANO
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_505-I_514
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    The finance of Toyoake City is very good now but it has an anxiety of revenue shortfall for renewal of deteriorated public facilities as the population ages and the birth rate diminishes. Therefore, the city started earlier drawing up the comprehensive public facility management plan to practice strategic and inclusive maintenance works. In concrete, the city government held a series of seminar to discuss the possibility of efficient maintenance works in parallel with drawup of plan.
    This study observed and considered both the process of drawup of plan and the series of seminar. Thus it derived some implications of direction of whole government and of way of consensus building. Consequently, it was very significant that the parallel activities may make aware of policies and procedures of each section that maintain facilities and may raise the participants' awareness on efficiency of maintenance works.
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  • Mikiharu ARIMURA, Amane KAMADA, Takumi ASADA
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_515-I_522
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Due to a demographic changes in rural Japan, both increasing aging population and dwindling birth rate. Strategic shrinking and future aggregation are necessary to maintain an effective urban functions. The purpose of this study is to determine a quantitatively analysis of the compact city policy in Obihiro metropolitan area. The study use the data that integrated the mobile space statistical data that has staying population in each time and urban planning basic survey data that has location information of the building. Moreover, we use multiple regression analysis to apply in this study. The objective of multiple regression analysis is visitor's numbers in 1km mesh. In this study, we consider variables 2 types that consist of the number of building use in each type and total floor areas. Finally, a result found that the hotel is the most significant factor that impact to visitor's numbers.
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  • Yuka KATAOKA, Tsuyoshi HATORI, Eiji HATO
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_523-I_532
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    It has become a key for many local cities to train the next generation to support urban and community development. In Matsuyama city, “urban design school” was introduced as a regional policy to retain younger people locally while solving regional problems through collaboration between regional actors including the municipal office, private companies, and universities. This study developed a learning program of this schooled and examined how learning practices in this school could contribute to regional collaboration for urban development. It also discussed the effective program of practical learning of urban development to connect actual projects in a region.
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  • Yuki MATSUI, Naohiko HIBINO, Shigeru MORICHI, Hitoshi IEDA
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_533-I_546
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    Inbound tourism takes an important role for Japan in the future, from the viewpoint of activation of the economy by the expansion of the interchange population. In recent years, the number of inbound tourists to Japan has been greatly increasing from not only conventional markets such as Taiwan, Korea, China but also Southeast Asian countries. As the diversification of the tourism behavior advances, the tourism policy that captures the needs enough is necessary. However, there is no study that analyzed compositely and quantitatively based on tourism statistics, concerning they prefer what kind of destinations what kind of tourism activities. This study shows the difference due to personal attributes and time-series change quantitatively, by analyzing in combination of destinations and activities based on individual data of “Consumption Trend Survey for Foreigners Visiting Japan”. The analysis shows the importance of analyzing in combination destinations and activities, in addition, this study shows Foreign Independent Traveler who increases in late years, tend to visit around an urban area, and they tend to do various activities.
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  • Satoru KONNO, Junya FUKUMOTO
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_547-I_558
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    In this study, we estimate the impacts of farmland policy on the land use conversion and species habitats. Focusing on the policy change in 1991, we do the following two analyses. First, we set up multiple scenarios of farmland policy change, we estimate the land use conversion ratio for each policy scenario. Comparing the results, we estimate the impacts of policy change in 1991. Second, we estimate the relationship between land use and habitat preferences of several species. By combining the result of first analysis, we estimate the impacts of farmland policy change on the species habitats.
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  • Yasuaki MATSUDA, Keisuke IWATA, Toshikazu INOUE
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_559-I_570
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    The many overhead power lines and poles along roads in Japan adversely affect tourism by detracting from scenic beauty. Furthermore, to meet the increased demand for telecommunications in recent years, the number of telecommunication lines is increasing. Newly installed electric poles have resulted in further deterioration of landscapes. Power and telecommunications lines and poles have a particularly adverse influence in natural and pastoral areas, where the roadscapes are open. However, there are very few projects for burying electric lines underground in suburban or rural areas, because such projects are very expensive. Burying telecommunication lines is affordable relative to the costs for burying overhead electric wires. In addition to the low cost of burying telecommunications lines, it is not necessary to install equipment at ground level.
    This paper examines the influence of telecommunication lines, which have been increasing recently, on landscapes and the effectiveness of a public project for burying only communication lines in rural areas in terms of improving economic, aesthetic and technical aspects. The examination shows that burying only communication lines has a certain degree of effectiveness in improving landscapes, and that it would be possible to greatly reduce construction costs. This study further shows a procedure for selecting effective locations for such projects.
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  • Hideki FURUYA, Yujuan LIU
    2016 Volume 72 Issue 5 Pages I_571-I_583
    Published: 2016
    Released: December 23, 2016
    JOURNALS FREE ACCESS
    The purpose of this paper is to identify the combination of visiting places by foreign visitors in Japan. Zoning is set as prefectural level. The number of combination of visiting prefecture is 2191. The Latent Class Model is useful tool to summarize the tour courses from the view point of their similarities. Actual 29,067 trips data collected by Japan Tourism Agency in 2012 and 2013 was used for estimation of the model. It is suitable to assume that there are twenty four classes using foreign tourist visiting prefecture patterns by AIC, BIC and p-Value. These patterns are divided into two groups. One is the group which includes only one region of visiting prefecture. These patterns occupied 78.1%. The other is the visiting places spread into some regions. Typical round trip called Golden Route are included in this pattern and the occupied ratio is 21.9%. It is clear that there are some differences of component ratio in visitors' nations and region, the frequencies of visit Japan. Finally generalized chi-squared test is applied for the independent test between some factors and the visiting places patterns.
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