In the previous paper entitled “ High Winter Mortality of Seasonal Diseases ” (Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics, Vol. XII, No.2,1961), I analyzed and explained the chronological changes in the calendars of seasonal diseases in the first half of the current century in Japan. I further traced the secular trends in the seasonal variation curves of deaths from major maladies and in the summer and winter death indices, thereby to find out the reasons responsible for such noteworthy fluctuations in mortality from diseases. I am inclined to continue my research and analysis by preparing seasonal disease calendars by age group in order to clarify the age structure of high winter mortality in recent years.
In this paper, I try to make seasonal disease calendar models by period on the basis of my studies in mortality variation in five periods (1906-10,1912-16,1930-34,1952-56 and 1957-61) in Japan and models of the same kind by country according to various stages of civilization or socio-economic developmentthe United Kingdom as a highly advanced, Japan as a less-advanced and Egypt as an under-developed country. I also try to form a tentative modelling of the seasonal variation of deaths from various diseases.
This paper, therefore, is intended to further the analysis and clarification of the ever-higher mortality in the cold season.
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