Recent economic growth has improved our material standard of living, but at the same time has broght about several serious problems, such as environmental pollution. It then forces us to investigate how all of society will change in the future and to find countermeasures for the future. A useful tool is a dynamic model which satisfies the following conditions.
1) It contains various factors of the society, such as economy, environment, population, patterns of consumption, export, import, water resources, housing, land, transportation, social overhead capital, and so forth.
2) It deals with the long-range future, at least 20 to 30 years from now.
The above two conditions, however, make building a model extremely difficult.
There are two methods which deal with modeling of society, i.e. econometrics and System Dynamics. The authors have combined these two, taking their merits and demerits into consideration, and so the model thus constructed may be named the “à la SD”model. The object area here is the Kanto area, which seems the most important area in Japan. The model is composed of several submodels, of which some are as yet incomplete and at present replaced by proper exogeneous assumptions. Simulation runs over 30 years from 1964 under various policy assumptions show fairly adequate results.
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