To examine recent change of log distribution in log-auction-depended area, we analyzed log purchasing behaviors of six major sawmill factories which had invested plant and equipment by Governmental Forest Industry Promotion Project in Hita, Oita. As a result, it showed that these sawmills kept depending on log markets as before, but also they had come to take various ways of purchasing other than usual on-site bidding, for example, fax bidding, arranged transaction, etc. These behaviors were connected with sawmills log purchasing strategy as follow. First, while using log auction as spot purchase, they need to innovate an easier and more stable way to decide the price and amount of logs to save cost which increase with the spread of log purchase area. Second, regardless production line is specialized or versatile type, they get to request "on-demand assortment" from suppliers to make production line more profitable, and strengthen the channel with suppliers who can comply with it. And, in the recent oligopolization of sawmill industry, log markets try to meet their needs and make log distribution diverse.
As some researches forecast the decrease of housing starts in the future, the trend of wooden house rate becomes one of the points to foresee the future of wood demand. Miyamoto and Fujikake (2012) forecasted wooden house rates using regression analysis with prefectural data. However, a wooden house rate in each prefecture may be dependent on population dynamics within prefecture. This study takes a case of Miyazaki Prefecture, where we examine the wooden rate in houses already existed for both in and out of the city of Miyazaki, and consider the prefectural wooden house rate in the future by assuming the wooden house rates for both in and out of the city and forecasting housing starts for each area. Although the wooden house rate in existed houses is stable around 70% outside the city, that within the city decreased to below 40%. Assuming this trend continues, our forecast of housing starts shows that as the share of housing starts in the city rises from 39% to 45%, the prefectural wooden house rate drops from 60% to 53%, which illustrates that the population concentration in urban area in the future may lead to a lower wooden house rate in local prefectures.