This study tries to develop an estimation method of modal share of inter-city express trains focusing on mode choice behavior on inter-regional trips. Firstly, the paper indicates that most of travelers are mode captive, recognizing only one transportation mode as an alternative on their mode choice behavior, and latent preference factors have impact on the generation of mode captive. Then, this study tries to develop PLCS (Parameterized Logit Captivity and Selectivity) model to describe mode choice behavior more appropriately and this study also shows that the developed simulation method with PLCS model estimates the modal share with sufficient accuracy.

Considering the changes and trends of global markets and institutional frameworks, the evolution process and business models of global enterprises are analyzed from cross-modal viewpoints in the transport sector. Their businesses have been expanding both horizontally and comprehensively to gain more competitiveness in their core country and abroad. These activities have affected Japan’s international competitiveness and appropriate measures should be considered in order to cope with these trends, taking into account specific circumstances in Japan.

The ship size of container ship has been getting larger and larger. The new services of mega ships to Europe/East Asia route have also brought about enlargement of other shipping routes by the chains of transfers of existing ships. On the other hand, the ratio of container volume from/to Japan in East Asia has been becoming small relatively, and it is anticipated that this ratio will continue to reduce. This study estimated the future container ship size calling at Japanese ports, and drew the conclusion that ship sizes of each route would enlarge in the long term.