[in Japanese]

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The predictability of Nested Logit (NL) models was examined at the aggregate level as well as the disaggregate sample level, using the before-and-after data on a new railway station, The NL models tested have a three-level structure, containing line-haul mode, station, and access mode choices.
We showed (1) the temporal stability of the choice structure, the independent variables and the parameters is very high, and (2) the prediction error on the usage of the new railway station is within 20 percent, using simplified aggregation procedures. So, we concluded that the NL models have high applicability for the prediction of the station's usage.

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After ship accidents inside harbours at Jane Typhoon in 1950. it has been a custom that large-sized ships take refuge outside harbours under stormy weather such as typhoons. However refuges inside harbours are again discussed recently because of lack of capacity of waters outside harbours. But captains are anxious about the inside harbour refuges.
The present paper discusses the relationship of the safety levels of the inside and the outside harbour refuges, between which captains are preferentially indifferent, and gives a criteria for planning and design of harbour facilities.
The indiference curve is conducted by the interviews and questionairs to two hundred Japanese captains, 70% of them have experienced typhoons and all captains are assumed expected monitary valuers.

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In this study, applying the Varaiya's decomposition principle to the grid networks made up of many closed loops, the offset patterns of the traffic signals are optimized. The total delays of the networks are minimized subject to the closure constraints. It is supposed that the delays of links are the functions of only the relative offsets, and that the delays are approximated by two parabolic curves. The networks are decomposed into the many subareas of single loops. At the lower level, these single loops are optimized independently each other, and the coordination between the subareas is performed at the upper level The offset patterns are obtained by repeating the two level computations. From some examples, it is found that the convergences to the solutions are achieved within reasonable CPU time.

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In computing the response of railway vehicles on a suspension bridge under the horizontal excitation due to winds or earthquakes, each vehicle has often been modeled as a mass-spring-system composed of three rigid masses, representing one car body and two wheel sets, connected by springs, representing linkage leaf-springs and wheel-rail interaction. Although the mechanical characteristics of springs play a crucial role, they are difficult to determine experimentally when viscous and frictional dampings are remarkable as well as non-linearity. In this paper a technique is presented to evaluate the dynamic characteristics of springs experimentally. Using a 1/5-scaled model the hysteresis curves of each spring are plotted, and they are compared with those estimated from static experiments. Then noticeable dynamic effects on them of the input frequency and amplitude are observed.

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A descriptive land use model is proposed which explicitly involves the competition of location of economic activities in urban area. The principal assumption is that urban land use pattern would be the results of the land-goods exchange in a land market. Location potential sub model estimates the measure of land value, which is the function of accessibility and environmental factor. Market Game Theory is applied in order to describe the land-goods exchange process in competition sub model. Based on the out-puts of the first sub model, the land market is formulated by characteristic function. An expanded version of ε-Core by Linear Programming is introduced as an equilibrium solution of the game. An application of the model for Osaka city is briefly discussed.

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Generalized Daparture Time is a response function of travellers who are appointed the place and time for arrival, and GDT gives their departure time as a function of the operational properties of transit system. The validity of such a concept is to be verified by the actual application in various cases because GDT is a “constructive concept” to be conjectured and the way of conjecture is not foregiven. This paper describes the method to estimate GDT of mass transit passengers in order to serve such verification. It also reports that commuters' GDTs estimated in HIROSHIMA and TOKYO are quite alike.

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A class definition method has been developed for extracting the land-cover information from multispectral scanner (MSS) data. The method is based on the statistical verification tested by F-values and t-values, which are estimated by multiple regression analysis in a stepwise manner. It has been applied to Landsat and aircraft MSS data. Based on the statistical verification, the original land-cover classes which are interpreted manually with color aerial photographs, have been consolidated in sequence. Consequently, thirteen classes for the Landsat MSS data and eleven classes for the aircraft MSS data are defined.

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Staged capacity expansion of a single facility under budget constraint is mathematically formulated and analyzed. It is suggested that there are some fundamental units for staged capacity expansion models. The fundamental unit is defined as a model which possesses a minimum set of conditions under which staged expansion is favorable. The excess-demand model, one of the fundamental units, is defined as the model with the set of conditions: (1) economies of scale, (2) budget constraint, and (3) excessive demand (to the capacity of the facility). An explicit expression of the optimum number of stages is derived for the model.

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It is no exaggeration to say that noise pollution from road traffic occurs everywhere on trunk roads in Japan. In order to overcome this nuisance, it is inevitable to establish the precise prediction method of road traffic noise, where noise protections are inquired from a viewpoint of land use planning and traffic engineering at the step of planning and designing traffic facilities. But it is difficult for widely used method, such as environmental assesment in Japan, to satisfy properties required. Then in this paper, the following investigations are dealt with: (I) development of the noise prediction method considering fluctuation of traffic flow and local variation of sound propagation characteristics; (2) estimation and classification of propagation characteristics by a simple experimental technique.

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Generalized Departure Time is a response function of travellers who are appointed the place and time for arrival, and GDT gives their departure time as a function of the operational properties of transit systems. Virtual Time Consumption, the time interval from departure time to appointed arrival time, is obtained as a probabilistic quantity by the application of this concept to commuters behavior. This paper describes that station catchment area, i. e. distribution of commuters who use the station, is obtained by the propababilistic comparison of VTCs calculated for respective routes via available stations.

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This paper makes clear the relationship between the landform and the formal attributes of transmission lines such as vertical, horizontal flection and variation of span, based on the statistical analysis of actual route locations of super high voltage (500kV) transmission lines around the Kanto area. In addition, the visual impact by flection of route is measured through psychological experiments. As the result, this paper presents the principle of route selection and gives information of locational condition for route planning of transmission lines in wide areas.

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This report describes the outline and the results of a traffic survey on a 800 meter section of the Hanshin Expressway making use of areial photographs from a helicopter hovering at an altitude of about 800 meter. The objectives of the study are to record the traffic flow conditions at the time of congestion and to find out the cause of the congestion. The traffic in the study section was photographed by two 35mm still camera evry five second for one hour. All the vehicles recorded in the south bound traffic flow were numbered and traced in order to depict the trajectories in the time and space diagram. The speed and density contour diagrams are depicted making use of the theory of three dimensional representation of traffic flow. The cause and conditions of the traffic congestion are investigated with these diagrams.

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Person trip survey is a fundamental data source for transportation studies, but its characteristics in data precision is rather vague. The author points out that the survey makes up the sample by cluster sampling and that the effect of the sampling method on data precision cannot be ignored. Hitherto, the standard error of estimates obtained by the survey has been estimated on the assumption that the sample from the survey is random. This assumtion was examined by means of a re-sampling experiment and shown to be in-correct. Then, a method to estimate the standard error was developed, taking the effect of cluster sampling into consideration. Finally, the advantages of using a household and a person as a sampling unit were compared from the viewpoints of data precision and survey cost.

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This paper presents the first comprensive information on the characteristics of the urban public transport operation and demand in the Metropolitan Manila areas wherein a paratransit mode peculiar to the Philippines called “Jeepney” is focused. The analysis is made on the basis of various field surveys extensively conducted.

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