The purpose of this paper is to discuss the state of fluctuation for the transportation demand which varies with time and to develop a time series prediction system and model considering properties of the fluctuation. The traditional models in time series analysis of data have problems such as insufficient consideration on the trend variation, complexity with including the seasonal variation and ambiguous process of model fitting.
A general prediction system and a new stochastic prediction model in time series analysis, AROP model, is proposed. Prediction system consists of subsystems to separate stochastic stationary or nonstationary process, to select a prediction model and to evaluate the precision of prediction. AROP model is divided into two models, AROP 1 and AROP 2, corresponding to trend variation.

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This paper deals with a method of on-line automatic updating of the correction factors for vehicle detection bias. The factors are given for free flow and congested flow individually at each of expressway cross sections based on the traffic data that are obtained from vehicle detectors. This updating method was tested through the use of traffic data that were collected from Tokyo Expressway.

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A camera with a solid state device has several advantages in engineering photogrammetric measurements. Capability of presize and reliable metric measurement is also one of the good properties of this camera. Measuring properties of a CCD camera with a fairly high resolution, such as 2000×3000 pixels, are investigated. The image of 2000×3000 pixels is produced from scanning a image plane by a linear array sensor. This scanning mechanism leads positional unstability of the sensor. The random error of a position of a pixel is ±2.6μm (±0.2 pixel pitch). In spite of the fairly large error, the interior orientation elements can be determined precisely. Therefore object coordinates can also be measured with a good accuracy because any kinds of errors seldom occur in a digital data processing. Another merit is to be able to do stereoscopic measurement of a pair of strongly convergent photos.

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Making a plan of city planning roads network in Tokyo was started in 1945 under the coordination of Mr. Ishikawa, director of Section of City Planning, Tokyo Metropolitan Government (T. M. G.). And this Master Plan was determinated by Council of City Planning in Tokyo Region on March 1946. In this Plan, Mr. Ishikawa applied for 100-m wide roads. But for the worst financial condition of Japan, the American famous economist and mission recommended to improve the economic policy of Japan, especially the reform of the Japanese taxation system. Japanese Government accepted the recommendation and executed new economic policy. Moreover the Government requested T. M. G. reconcideration of city planning roads. According to the request, Council of City Planning in Tokyo Region determinated the new narrower roads network plan on January 1950. In this plan, the width of 100-m wide roads was reduced.

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Rumble strips are series of lateral bands of surface treatment designed to cause intermittent noise within vehicles driving over them for reducing vehicle speed mainly on access roads in residential areas. Although rumble strips have been applied and now accepted commonly in Europe, they are rarely found in Japan. This is due to ignorance of the design and usage of rumble strips. In this paper, speed control effects were studied experimentally and their noise and vibration levels were measured using nine rumble strips with different materials and shapes. It was found that the height and the interval of lateral bands are the major determinants of speed control effects and that the higher the bands are, the larger the noise and vibration levels are. Rumble strips must be, hence, carefully introduced in residential areas.

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There have been several methods to analyse benefits of transport improvements, However, no model can measure appropriately the imputation by interest group and by region, considering the external effects due to locational interaction of tertiary industries. This model is developed to estimate the total generated benefit of transport improvement including the external effects and also the amount of its imputation to land owners, enterprises and commuters in each region at any time after the improvement.

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In this paper, our emphasis will be on interdependencies between stocks of knowledge and their distribution over urban space in the form of knowledge production firms. We shall also focus upon the essential role which meeting facilities play in the process of knowledge exchange over a spatial network. We derive a production function for the knowledge levels of a nodal firm and the firm's accessibility measure to meetings by means of knowledge networks. A spatial equilibrium model of knowledge production over urban space is formulated and the resulting Nash equilibrium is derived. A simple numerical example is used to illustrate that the system may bear endogenously the agglomeration cores in the distribution of knowledge production capacities.

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The evaluation of road roughness has been examined by various authors from different points of view: riding quality, pavement serviceability, structural design of the vehicle and the pavement. Nevertheless, there are a number of unclarified points regarding a correlation between them.
The authors have obtained a significant result through examining a linear relationship between the inputs and the outputs of the vibratory system of a vehicle induced by road roughness. Based on the result, the method of road roughness evaluation synthesizing the standards used in the related fields is proposed by simulation method of a vehicle mathematical model.

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It is well known that the visibility of road markings at rainy nights remarkably decreases. Many studies on this problem have been carried out. However, most of them have not dealt with the effect of rainfall on the visibility of road markings by means of analytical approaches.
In this paper, firstly we chose dominant factors effecting on the visibility of road markings at rainy nights, secondly made clear each effect of them by means of experimental and theoretical approaches, and finally discussed the methods of improving the visibility of road markings at rainy nights.
We were able to make clear the effect of factors on the decrease in the visibility quantitatively, and propose some improvements of the visibility.

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A number of methods for obtaining approximate terminal reliability between given two nodes in a road network have been proposed so far. In this paper, the following four methods are compared. Two of them are based on Reliability Graph Analysis with partial minimal path sets and cut sets developed by authors; One method determines upper and lower bounds with Boolean algebraic absorption and the other evaluates an approximate value without Boolean absorption. The remainder are Monte Carlo methods; One is a traditional Monte Carlo method with direct sampling and the other is an improved Monte Carlo method with restricted sampling by a variance reducing technique. Numerical examples for model networks and a real network are executed and the merits and demerits of those methods are discussed.

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This study aims at considering the trends in the economic development activities within the nine economic regions of Japan from the viewpoint of adaptation process. To achieve this objective, the two approaches below are adopted. Firstly, the potential growth of development activities within Japan in the 1970's is examined by solving the turnpike for the nine regional economies, and then clarifying how the adaptation processes of the actual regional development corresponded to the turnpike. Secondly, the model reference adaptive technique is applied for analyzing warranted regional structural changes which would realize the goal of the New Comprehensive Nationwide Development Plan of Japan.

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In the previous paper we have proposed two types of time-of-day traffic assignment models which can predict the hourly volume of traffic on each network link. In these models, however, the phenomenon of congestion over a network has not been treated explicitly enough.
In this paper we propose an improved time-of-day traffic assignment model which can describe the congestion queues at bottlenecks in a network more explicitly and realistically by introducing new link performance functions. It is shown that this new model can be reduced to the variational inequality and can be solved by the use of the iteration method developed by M. Smith.

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The “CALUTAS” land use model has been highly regarded not only for its operational capabilities but also its ways to deal with residential locations, represented by a submodel called the locational surplus allocation model. As the basic idea of this submodel has not been clarified in the sense as to how its outputs are related with the market equilibrium solutions, this article is to examine its theoretical implications in light of urban economics. We find that the utility levels of households belonging to the same household type may differ depending on their locations, while the model outputs ensure that the households with the largest surplus occupy each zone. It is also found that the model outputs cannot be attained through the competitive market mechanism unless such interventions like rent control are introduced. However, it might be possible to interpret the model as to ropresent a sequence of disequilibrium states observed in a course of dynamic location processes.

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The development of landuse activities in urban area generates the new traffic demands in every zones, therefore, it is necessary to restrict new activities from the viewpoint of traffic congestion and pollution in road network. In this paper, we applied the concept of T-region of a linear programming problem to the allocation of landuse activities, and proposed the method to seek for the bounds of development allowed in each zone under the constraints such as the total travel vehicle-kilometers. The total travel vehicle-kilometers is related to the environmental quality in road network. An algorithm was developed based on the complementary theorem of LP. A numerical example of 10-node network model is executed to examine the validity of the method.

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