Tooth loss is a social health problem in terms of not only leading to insufficient nutrient intake, but also decreasing the QOL in elderly people. The aim of this cohort study was to identify predictors of tooth loss over a five-year period in an elderly population in the community. The subjects were recruited among all 4,542 inhabitants aged 70 years according to a registry of residents, and 600 people were selected randomly from those who agreed to participate in this study. Finally, 378 dentate subjects (201 males and 177 females) who could participate in both the baseline examination (1998) and follow-up examinations (2003) after five years were included in the analysis. The follow-up rate was 68.2%. In order to identify predictors of tooth loss with a different degree of robustness, three multiple logistic regression analyses (model-1, -2, and -3) where the dependent variables were one, two, and three or more lost teeth, respectively, were performed. The following dependent variables were used in model-1, -2, and -3: the Eichner index (class A, B1-B4, C1, C2, dummy) based on existing natural tooth contact between the maxilla and mandible in the bilateral premolar and molar regions; gender (Male, Female); number of teeth with decayed roots (0, 1+); number of crowns (0-4, 5-8, 9+, dummy); lactobacilli level (10^3-10^5, 10^6+ CFU/ml); mean clinical attachment level; serum albumin concentration; ability to chew 15 kinds of food (1-14 foods); regular dental visits (Yes, No); and smoking habit (Yes, No). Overall, 56.3% of the subjects lost one or more teeth over the five-year period. The mean number of missing teeth per year was 1.4±2.0. Logistic regression analysis indicated that Eichner index class B4 (OR: 2.11-3.42) or B2 (OR: 1.88-4.83), 9+ crown restorations (OR: 1.78-2.94), a 10^6+ CFU/ml lactobacilli level (OR: 1.61-2.65), and the mean clinical attachment level (OR: 1.41-1.86) were robust risk predictors. The findings of this cohort study suggest that local oral factors such as periodontal disease and the occlusal condition contribute to tooth loss in elderly people.
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