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Volume 20, Issue 2
Displaying 1-15 of 15 articles from this issue
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Special Issue
Commemorative Issue on the Retirement of Professor Kazumasa Kobayashi: Population in Southeast Asia
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Kazumasa Kobayashi1982 Volume 20 Issue 2 Pages 143-167
Published: October 30, 1982
Released on J-STAGE: May 31, 2018
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSThe so-called postwar ‘population explosion’ in Southeast Asia, as in many other developing regions of the world, is generally attributed to a rapid decline in mortality in the postwar years. Actual yearly trends in mortality, however, are not precisely known for most of the countries of Southeast Asia, due to the deficiency of their vital registration data. This paper deals mainly with Indonesia, Malaysia (Peninsular), the Philippines, and Thailand, for which estimated data on mortality are available for more or less extended periods of time. These countries showed diverse trends in the crude death rate during the pre-war decades as well as immediate postwar years, in terms of absolute levels and speed of decline: a particularly marked contrast was apparent between the rapid decrease in Thailand and the slow one in the Philippines during the 1920s and 1930s. The differences and similarities in the levels of mortality among the countries in recent years are thought to have been determined largely by their respective changes in mortality during the 1950s.View full abstractDownload PDF (1986K) -
Kozo Ueda1982 Volume 20 Issue 2 Pages 168-178
Published: October 30, 1982
Released on J-STAGE: May 31, 2018
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSThe development of statistical activities in Indonesia since the 1960s is outlined with special reference to demographic surveys and population censuses. Progress is followed through actual instances of improvement in the 1961, 1971 and 1980 Population Censuses, 1962–1964 Demographic Surveys, 1964–1970 National Socio-Economic Surveys, 1974–1977 Sample Vital Registration Project, and 1976 Intercensal Population Survey. Remarkable progress has obviously been made in various aspects of designing, organizing and conducting these censuses and surveys. Above all, the improvement of survey capability is noted, in particular regarding the conduct of field operations. The development in processing, publication and utilization of the results of the censuses and surveys is also noticeable. With the remarkably improved capacity for statistical investigation of recent years, it is strongly hoped that the gap in demographic data still existing in the dynamic aspects of population change represented by vital statistics will soon be filled, in spite of the various practical difficulties presented by the particular circumstances of Indonesia. The availability of vital statistics will ensure the accuracy and utility of census/survey data on population.View full abstractDownload PDF (1185K) -
A Multivariate AnalysisNaohiro Ogawa1982 Volume 20 Issue 2 Pages 179-205
Published: October 30, 1982
Released on J-STAGE: May 31, 2018
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSDrawing upon the data derived from the 1976 Indonesia Fertility Survey and the 1978 Republic of the Philippines Fertility Survey, the present study has attempted to identify the sources of differential fertility both in Indonesia and the Philippines. To disentangle the effect of various socioeconomic factors upon fertility changes in both countries, the author has analyzed these data sets on the basis of multiple classification analysis. It should be stressed that this multivariate analytical tool has been applied to tabulated results rather than individual records.
The statistical results of this study show that the development of Indonesia is still at a very early stage where the pattern of fertility changes is greatly influenced by a variety of nondevelopmental, involuntary factors. In contrast, the Philippines is at a more advanced stage of socioeconomic development and demographic transition where a number of voluntary factors have been considerably operating with regard to the relationship between fertility and development-related variables.View full abstractDownload PDF (2003K) -
Hiroshi Tsujii1982 Volume 20 Issue 2 Pages 206-220
Published: October 30, 1982
Released on J-STAGE: May 31, 2018
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSThailand's industrial sector has grown very rapidly during the last two decades. This paper addresses the question “Can this fast industrial growth solve the problems of a large surplus of labor, unequal income distribution, and widespread poverty by absorbing the labor surplus in a decade or so?” Based on Hauser's labor utilization framework, and making an important revision in the handling of seasonal unemployment in the Labor Force Survey, the underemployed in Thailand in 1977 and '78 were estimated to be 8–9 million people, about 40 percent of the total labor force. If the industrial sector continues to absorb labor at the rate it did in the late seventies, it will be impossible for this sector to absorb this huge underemployed labor force together with rapidly increasing economically active population in a decade or so.
Despite of fast macroeconomic growth, it was found that income distribution worsened and the real wage rate of unskilled laborers stagnated during the sixties and the first half of the seventies.
The capacity of Thai industrial growth, led by large-scale foreign joint ventures and guided by government policies biased toward large-scale capital-intensive technologies, to absorb labor will be limited, since large firms are found to have much higher capital intensity and much lower capital productivity in comparison with medium ones.
A slowdown of labor absorption by the agricultural sector is expected in the near future, because the vast reserves of forest are mostly exhausted, having been converted to upland fields in the recent fast crop diversification process in Thailand, and intensification of agricultural technology is limited because the water control systems that precondition the intensification cannot quickly be constructed.
Based on this evidence, the answer to the question posed above will be negative if the Thai government continues to pursue similar industrial and agricultural development policies to those of the last two decades.View full abstractDownload PDF (1604K) -
Kazuo Nishioka1982 Volume 20 Issue 2 Pages 221-242
Published: October 30, 1982
Released on J-STAGE: May 31, 2018
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSSince 1974, through the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the Japanese Government has been assisting the Thai National Family Planning Program (NFPP) by sending experts, supplying equipment and goods, and training Thai personnel. From September 1980 to February 1981, I was sent by JICA to work with the Thai NFPP as a planner-coordinator.
Thailand has shown a remarkable decrease in fertility since the late 1960s. The total fertility rate dropped from 6.3 in the period 1965–1969 to 3.5 in 1978, while the crude birth rate fell from 41 per 1,000 population in 1970 to 32 in 1980. Active users of contraceptives rose from 14.4% in 1969/70 to 52.2% in 1981.
These results are mainly due to the Thai Government's efforts. Government officaials have shown great resourcefulness in employing nonphysicians for the extension of family planning services, in utilizing existing health facilities for these services, and in effective use of technological and financial assistance.
It seems probable that by 1986, Thailand will achieve its target of 1.5% population increase.View full abstractDownload PDF (1977K) -
Atsushi Otomo1982 Volume 20 Issue 2 Pages 243-252
Published: October 30, 1982
Released on J-STAGE: May 31, 2018
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSThis paper outlines the application of the Markov chain model to the Philippines. This model for projecting the urban and rural population in a developing nation employs data of migratory flows between urban and rural areas derived from national population censuses or other sources. For the Philippines the future trends of urbanization are assessed on the basis of the relative distribution of population which would result if the pattern of internal migration for 1965–70 continued. For comparison, the projected level of urbanization is also evaluated by the urban-rural growth difference (URGD) method using a kind of Logistic model.
The Markov chain model predicts that the level of urbanization, namely, the proportion of urban population in the national population, will rise from the 32.9 percent of 1970 to 38.3 percent in 2000, and will attain equilibrium at 52.5 percent, below the current level in Western societies. Projections of the proportion of the national population in the Manila Metropolitan Area by the same method indicate that the increase in urbanization will largely be accounted for by an increase in the proportion of the population in this area, in which the proportion of the population in the central district, the City of Manila, will decrease while that in the suburban districts will increase greatly.
The projections made by the URGD method were somewhat higher than those by the Markov chain model, which may be true in general for the developing nations, where the current level of urbanization is considerably low.View full abstractDownload PDF (909K) -
Keiichiro Matsushita1982 Volume 20 Issue 2 Pages 253-259
Published: October 30, 1982
Released on J-STAGE: May 31, 2018
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSThe theory of migration here is defined as the system of definitions of individual behavior and of the theories, corollaries, and inferences derived from the definitions, which characterizes migration. The life-cycle utility maximization model is employed to define individual behavior. A welfare function is introduced to educe the implications of the life-cycle model. Migration is considered to attain equilibrium where marginal welfare is equated. Emphasis is put on the possibilities of applying the model to empirical analyses which require a dynamic framework.View full abstractDownload PDF (680K) -
An Attempt in a Sundanese Village, West JavaTadataka Igarashi1982 Volume 20 Issue 2 Pages 260-284
Published: October 30, 1982
Released on J-STAGE: May 31, 2018
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSAge misstatement, presumably derived from the lack of a tradition of reckoning age by single years at the last birthday, is a notorious problem in obtaining correct age data by house-to-house canvassing in rural Java. Given this situation, I attempted in the course of ecology-oriented fieldwork to estimate ages at a Priangan-Sundanese village by a variety of means. This paper presents firstly a brief analysis of the age data collected directly from the inhabitants, which shows that their age reporting is so strongly biased that age data based solely thereon could be detrimental to demographic and biosocial studies. I then describe my attempt to obtain age estimates and some of the difficulties encountered in the field. Individuals' ages were estimated by a combination of the usual techniques,i.e., locating a person's “private event” with a “public event” of established year of occurrence, checking a person's age rank against those of a number of neighbors, and seeking the Gregorian date of birth in the Islamic-Gregorian calendrical conversion table by making full use of the traditional practice of expressing birthday in terms of Islamic month, date, day of the week, etc. Although each technique used has some weak points, their combination may provide reasonable, if not precise, estimates of age. Since my fieldwork is still in progress, the results of the age estimation will be reported elsewhere.View full abstractDownload PDF (2481K) -
Yumio Sakurai1982 Volume 20 Issue 2 Pages 285-306
Published: October 30, 1982
Released on J-STAGE: May 31, 2018
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSThis paper discusses the relationship between the peasant drain and the pattern of landownership in the Red River Delta during the later Lê and the early Nguyễn dynasties.
1. Các Trấn Tổng Danh Bị Lãm, a geographical report compiled in the 19th century, was analyzed to determine the distribution of abandoned villages, which were found to be concentrated in the central areas and northeast highlands of Northern Vietnam. This suggests that the major cause of the frequent peasant emigrations in the 18th century was severe draught which damaged fifth-month ricefields in the swamp areas and tenth-month ricefields in the highland areas. Clearly the occurrence and intensity of the peasant drain was geographically variable, depending on local environmental conditions.
2. Through regulations intended to counter the peasant drain in the Lê period, the central government tried to encourage the peasants remaining in the villages to bring abandoned agricultural lands back under cultivation. In this way, the government hoped to prevent the loss of land revenue. The land rolls compiled in the early 19th century for some of the villages in Nam Định province, situated in typical backswamp areas, on small natural levees and on sand banks, shows that most of the fifth-month ricefields were taken over by peasants who settled on the natural levees.
It is concluded that the local variation in environmental conditions and the Lê government policy resulted in the transfer of landownership to outsiders in the traditionally closed villages, especially to relatively well-to-do peasants living in better environments, who accumulated the poor-quality rice-fields abandoned through the peasant drain.View full abstractDownload PDF (2150K) -
A Preliminary ReportYoshihiro Tsubouchi, Yoneo Ishii1982 Volume 20 Issue 2 Pages 307-316
Published: October 30, 1982
Released on J-STAGE: May 31, 2018
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSThe Bangkok Postal Roll published in 1883 may shed light on some features of the population of the city before the first census was taken. Items which might be analyzed are discussed in this report with some interim figures. The most important feature is the ethnic composition of the city in that period. According to our analysis of 16,565 household heads registered in the roll, 60.1% were Thais, 36.3% Chinese, and the remaining 3.6% others. The degree of segregation of Chinese within the city is shown. The process of their assimilation may be traced through observation of the variation in addressed titles, types of residence, etc. Other potentially fruitful areas of study include the location of each housing cluster, the occupational structure by ethnic group and sex of the household heads, analysis of the types and ownership of the houses, and identification and analysis of patronship of household heads. In spite of qualitative defects, old registration materials of this kind should be fully utilized to recover lost information of the demographic situation in the near past.View full abstractDownload PDF (1001K) -
Kazumasa Kobayashi1982 Volume 20 Issue 2 Pages 317-323
Published: October 30, 1982
Released on J-STAGE: May 31, 2018
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSHow to disaggregate demographic variables is a basic question in studying determinants and consequences of population trends, which are the central subject of demography. In studying determinants of population trends, attention is usually directed to how the vital or migration rates concerned are affected by what non-demographic variables. The usual way of dealing with vital events or migration in formal demography is to assume that such events occur ‘suddenly’ with a certain probability of occurrence. Any event, be it birth, death, or migration, however, is produced in reality after the completion of a certain set of steps. For example, a live birth can occur at the completion of a necessary set of intrauterine developmental steps beginning with conception. Conception may be further traced back to pre-pregnancy sexual behavior since marriage or the last birth. Variables involved in such a context are called ‘intermediate’ variables in demographic literature. The study of intermediate variables has recently advanced most in the field of fertility. A similar approach should now be applied to mortality, nuptiality, and migration research. What is important is to isolate intermediate variables involved and to devise effective ways to manipulate them quantitatively for study purposes.
Interdisciplinary interests may be drawn more to the socio-economic consequences of population trends. From the demographic standpoint, however, what is essential is to investigate the nondemographic variables involved in the linkage between one demographic change and the next.View full abstractDownload PDF (675K) -
Article type: Appendix
1982 Volume 20 Issue 2 Pages 324-327
Published: October 30, 1982
Released on J-STAGE: May 31, 2018
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSDownload PDF (257K) -
Article type: Appendix
1982 Volume 20 Issue 2 Pages 328
Published: October 30, 1982
Released on J-STAGE: May 31, 2018
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSDownload PDF (51K)
Field Report etc.
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Hisao Furukawa1982 Volume 20 Issue 2 Pages 329-330
Published: October 30, 1982
Released on J-STAGE: May 31, 2018
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSDownload PDF (301K) -
Article type: Bibliography
1982 Volume 20 Issue 2 Pages 331-332
Published: October 30, 1982
Released on J-STAGE: May 31, 2018
JOURNAL FREE ACCESSDownload PDF (197K)
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