The next century is viewed from two different standpoints: the global level and the local level. Globally, we human beings will experience the following changes. (1) the acceleration of population growth, especially in cities. As a result, cities will increasingly be the center of culture (2) a large increase in energy consumption (3) atmospheric warming from the greenhouse effect These matters are expected to occur globally. However, when we view them locally, differences can be seen among different areas: These differences are reflected in three issues noted above. The 20th century is characterized by the word ``artificial''. We have created artificial energy and materials which do not exist in Nature. We have made and effort to surpass nature and today we can do so partly. But problems have also arisen: the vanishing of the forests has become a major concern. Recently three is the increasing opinion that development should be allowed only as long as nature has the power to recover. In the high-tech society of the 21th century, two types of differences will occur. The first one is an international difference: the difference between advanced countries and developing countries. The second one is a domestic difference: the difference between cities and villages. We should make plans for development with allowance for these matters. Academically, we can explore the future with the aid of supercomputer, and we should consider plans to ensure that the welfare of the whole world attains better stage.

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今般、私の勤務する東京大学先端科学技術研究センター社会・科学技術相関大部門が中心となって、文部省科学研究費重点領域研究「高度技術文明のパースペクティブ : 資源・環境保全的な21世紀技術文明の構想」を進めることとなった。以下はそのための準備的考察である。

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CIM(コンピュータ統合製造)が作業者に与える産業心理学的な影響を論及する。CIMは製品開発の段階から消費者の手元に届くまでの各段階において情報の統合化を必要とするあらゆる活動を扱うものであり、コンピュータ援用設計(CAD)、コンピュータ援用工程計画、コンピュータ援用製造(CAM)、製造制御システム、ロボット、フレキシブル製造システム(FMS)などが含まれる。 CIMは中央集権化されたコンピュータ・ネットワーク・システムと高度に自動化された機械群を含むので、CIMの作業は変化と作業価値の欠落したものになり易い。CIMを推進するには心理的な影響への配慮が重要である。

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Nowadays people praise the Japanese 'Miracle' would wide. They are eager to find the reason why Japan achieved such drastic economical development. The present paper how that Japanese economical 'success' is not a special event but an usual historical process. Japan was not a third world country even before World War I, and Japan utilized this potential power for it economical development after World War II. This opinion is coroborated by the discussion concerning the institutionalization of Japanese electric technology in Meiji Period. Japan was able to organize higher technological education system, research institutes and academic societies before the beginning of this century. Japan also had developed electric power supply system before World War I. These system functioned well indeed. This will be attested by two indicators: the amount of the electricity supplied and the time lag for technology transfer. I shall conclude that there are two indicators to evaluate technological power: originality and the degree of systematization. Though Japanese technology is not mature in its originality, still Japan have kept strong systematic technological power since the nineteenth century.

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This paper discusses differences in the industrial activity in R&d betwenn Japan and the United States. The analysis was based on the hypothesis that the industrial results from R&D are closely connected with the investment in R&D and the intensity of competition in R&D. Currently, the distribution of R&D expenditures by industries in Japan is inclined toward applied research and development, while that in the United States is inclined toward basic research. Using the simplified model, the author shows that the inclination in the distribution is due to the R&D funding by the government and the possibility of a monopoly over inventions or innovations. The market failure in the distribution of R&D expenditures creates the differences in industrial activity in R&D between Japan and the United States. Consequently, it is rational that the government carries out the technological policies in order to correct the market failure. However, considering that the present systems of R&D and the present pattern of the distribution of resources in R&D have been formed for a long time, it is necessary to take long-term effective policies.

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This paper attempts to illustrate a possible research agenda for Japanese science policy. This will be done by drawing upon concepts developed in the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) of the University of Sussex in the U.K.. Much of this work was directed by C. Freeman, considered one of the leading researchers in science policy. SPRU has provided method of evaluating research performance through macro-level analyses of the global of national science system, and then through meso-level analysis of respective projects or micro-level analysis of the activities of scientists. Furthermore, SPRU pursues research topics that range from academic science to industrial issues, always recognizing that the boundary between science and technology is increasingly unclear. First, the paper points out the necessity for international research collaboration through shared data-bases and standardised methodologies. Second, the paper suggests a possible range of theoretical research to establish a sound microfoundation for policy. Third, this paper discusses policies to assist Japanese science in graduating from its catch-up status. Regarding this point, the paper argues that a deep understanding of the effect Japanese idiosyncrasies, shown in its activities and communities, on science is indispensable.

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Beginning his work with energy problems, the author has been concerned with the problems of mass consumption of natural resources in modern industrial societies. He has looked for a comprehensive way to show the flows of energy and natural resources. It is desired that the relations among energy, material resources and biological resources on the earth be shown through only one table. A table has been constructed which can describe, in a quantitative way, the relations between resources and problems related to the ability of mankind to survive on the earth. Then, the author makes a Global Resource Balance Table which included the column of stocks of natural resources, based on the Energy Resource Balance Table. This table pays attention to the flows and the stages of use of various resources on the earth. It also describes the flows of resources in fixed periods at the stages: acquisition, transformation, consumption, abondonment and recycle. The conception of a Global Resource Balance Table viewed as a first step, and offers some insights, but development will continue to create a more comprehensive means of analysis.

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前回(上)において、技術革新を達成してゆくためには、科学および技術の論理に基づく研究開発戦略とビジネスの論理に基づく経営戦略との間に調和を生み出してゆく必要があることを論じた。本論では、研究開発戦略と経営戦略とを両立させるための技術革新戦略についてさらに説明を加えてゆく。

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シナリオ・ライティング手法は、描写性とストーリー性が優れているため、他の技術予測手法に比べ、相手が興味を持ち、しかも理解し易いという特長がある。 このため、たんに技術予測のためだけに使用するのではなく、システム製品の販売や社内制度変更のためのツールとしても役立つことが明確になってきた。 本報告では、これらについて実例を挙げながらシナリオ・ライティング手法の書き方と企業における応用について述べる。

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In this lecture, three points were mentioned as important issues related to system development. The first issue is that a fair understanding of the capabilities of a computer is needed. It is important to guard against overconfidence or diffidence regarding the use of computers by understanding what computers can and cannon do. Also, the leaders of enterprises should remember that the information from scholars or workers used I computer programs can often be biased. The second issue concerns management in system development. while the creation of software is the work of an individual, system development as a whole requires cooperation. Therefore, when giving advice individuals, managers should select a setting where the members can easily communicate with each other, to achieve and maintain working partnerships. The third issue concerns the future of the computer industry, which experienced a change due to the appearance of the personal computer, and is now due to meet further changes as a result of the communications revolution. After the appearance of the personal computer, the market changed from selling hardware to emphasizing software. Network systems using personal computer as terminals, are spreading. This will continue to advance toward more unified systems when the interchangeability of operating systems increase and new communication systems are developed.

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Historically speaking, building a bridge between Honshu and Shikoku was proposed quite early; first in 1889 and then in 1940. By the recent serious marine accident, the need for the bridge became greater. The bridge takes on importance firstly in the activation of Kinki, Chugoku, and Shikoku; secondly in the convenience of transportation and thirdly in the prevention of marine accidents. The technique of building a long-big bridge is compared by its length. As for Seto Ohashi, with the length of 940m, the technique is on the top level in the world. Since the wind has strong effects on long-big bridges, wind-tunnel tests and simulation techniques are used freely to solve the problems. A bridge with a railroad, like Seto Ohasi, bears a load twice as heavy as a bridge only with a road. And welding, techniques at the construction site, and devices and quality control are especially to be considered.

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In this panel discussion, as one of the important problems in science and technology policy in Japan, the problem how to encourage basic research was discussed. The following is a summary of the opinions which were expressed. Because of restrictions on the government 's budget, increasing funding in fields of basic research is difficult. Does a social climate exist, to encourage individuals to devote themselves to basic research as their lives work? In investment, strategies based on a long-term view aren't taken into consideration at all. Basic research is not a learning of the fundamental science and technology as practiced in Japan (e.g., basic research for exercises), but original work which tries to discover unknown facts (e.g., competitive basic research). Experiments are needed most in basic research. The methods of instruction, which is valued in traditional cultural climate in Japan, hinders originality. This process should be reconsidered.

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From 1950 to 1978, the growth of Chinese science and technology experienced two cycles in which it rose and fell. This was mainly the result of political unrest in the country The period of growth was from 1950 to 1959, when Chinese science and technology developed from a blank to a large system comprising many fields. During this period also China narrowed its scientific gap with the more advanced level overseas. The counter-Right Movement (in which the Communist Party in power suppressed the intellectuals' criticisms and persecuted them) and the Great Leap Forward movement, in addition to the withdrawal of the Soviets from the Sino-Soviet treaty of Science and Technology, ended this growth period. This was followed by the first period of decline (1960-1961). The second period of growth (1962-1965) was terminated by the Great Culture Revolution, and the second period of decline lasted until 1977. After the close of the Great Culture Revolution in 1978, the nation entered a new era. Science and technology came considered to be the key to the realization of the Four Modernizations and intellectuals were esteemd again by the Party/Government. Between 1979-1988, unprecedented development and changes have occurred in science and technology. A Starlight Program to develop rural areas and a Torch Program to promote high technology are now under way. However, there are problems. For example, the intellectuals are still not treated very well and their salaries are low when compared with the laborers and with others engaged in business. China thinks highly of the success of Japan and seeks to learn from it. Not only its material outputs, but its experiences in planning, policy-making, management, and methods of co-operation and personal intercourse.

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The research of innovation process have recently been done vigorously. Bet most of them mainly intend to improve productivity of innovation process in a big company. The scientific research to solve how ``entrepreneurs'' manage risky R&D projects and succeed in enterprise management have hardly been done. The R&D process in a small or mediumsized company is very different from that in a big company in quality and quantity, therefore, innovation process in a small or medium-sized company probably differs from the models to have been suggested. 1. Keynote address The speaker introduces research movements about I) objects and ranges of technology management II) R&D intensive enterprise and its problems in Japan III) dynamics of managing and technological strategies. Then he suggests his new analytic model (resonance model). 2. Example reports The managers of five representative R&D intensive companies in Japan report I) managing and technological strategies II) organization of technology management III) institution and advance valuation of goal of R&D IV) R&D subjects to solve V) use of external resources, e.t.c. 3. Discussion Based on five examples, they discuss technology management through innovation process from each professional standpoint. Then following questions are suggested; How do we solve problems of innovation in the organization that is unspecialized like a small or medium-sized company and in which the administrative structure isn't systematically settled, do we need new dynamic models, and do these problems essentially suit modern scientific method? Three commentators show following suggestion. When we analyze innovation sociologically, we must forget why we analyze. We should consider what unspecialized organization implies. Now we should examine essential purposes of technology and consider technology ``for human life''. e.t.c

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