The publications in Japan related to prediction of crime and delinquency amount to 149. The attached table shows the numbers of those publications by their publication years. Publications of this sort have recently been in a little decline, with their peak in 1959 and 1960.
Positive researches related to delinquency prediction total 89.
The purposes, methods, outcomes of those positive researches may be better understood by grouping them as follows:
(1) Studies by psychiatrists
(2) Studies by psychologists
(3) Studies by sociologists
(4) Studies by practitioners
There are limits or questions common to them.
First, their studies on delinquency prediction are extensive but shallow. Many criticize others, but few are supported by positive data. Many criticisms are made from a narrow point of view confined to their own professions.
Second, they have few studies on prediction of delinquency at its early stage. In other words, most of them are concerned with recidivism prediction. Speaking of their application, the majority of studies constructed only tentative prediction tables, the validity of which are never tested, although one or two prediction tables were actually applied recklessly.
Third, there are many studies which are defective in the techniques and methods of collecting data. Such a simple method as the collection of primary data only by extracting from official records is usually followed, and in few studies have they followed up the cases for as long as 5 years or more. No attempt has been made to carry out a long-term study of testing the validity of prediction tables.
Although the great number of publications related to delinquency prediction could be an indication of people's deep interest in this field, these publications are not always of good quality.
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