In practical situations of the human reliability analysis, the basic error probabilities are sometimes multipled by a coefficient, called “modifier”, to reflect the effect of the given performance shaping factors. In this paper, we shall try an evaluation of modifier for the time margin when plant operators respond with adequacy to any abnormal event.
For this purpose, using the field data from American nuclear power plants, we obtain the distribution of the time spent to carry out the required task-procedure for the event, estimate the reliability of the task, and combining them by a simple formula concerning conditional probability, we drive the modifier by numerical calculation.
As a tentative result from similar trials for several cases, we obtained a relation between the time spent or the time margin for the required task and the modifier, which makes the guideline proposed by NUREG/CR-1278 in more detail.
View full abstract