We find that fertility has been declining since 1974 in Japan. Fertility rate becomes below 2.00 and it will be probably reported 1.79 in 1978. This trend can be also found in Europe and the United States, especially West-Germany recently. As it's fertility rate was 1.45 in 1975, West-Germany can't keep replacement level of population under the existing conditions. Demographers and others are mostly interested in the estimation of future population and analyzing causes of declining fertility.
When we try to estimate future population in Japan under it's fertility rate equal to 1.45, we can get several important results.
(1) The maximum of population will be 122 million in 2000.
(2) If it decreases after 2000, population will be equal to 110 million (population in 1975) until 2020.
(3) Both birth and death rates will be about 10 per thousand in 2000.
(4) The speed of aging of population will be accelerated, and then one of five persons will become the old above 65 years old in 2015.
(5) At the same time, there will be population above 70 years old more than that below 14 years old.
Demographers pick up some causes effect on declining fertility in Japan. It is illustrated that increase of investment in education makes parents had children less than two. And the diffusion of family-planning contributed greatly to birth control.
On the other hand, we can find mobility transition, changes of mobility patterns as a recent population phenomenon. The mobility from rural to metropolitan areas has been a main stream until 1965 in Japan. But there are multiple streams, channels of mobility recently. Population redistribution will be continued and accelerated in the future.
There are differences of fertility forces among areas. Generally the fertility rate of urban area is lower and rural area is contrary. We are greatly interested in what effect the redistribution has on the trend of fertility. It's the problem what migrants from urban to rural behave themselves concerning their reproduction.
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