In Figure 1 are shown monthly averages of solar radiation intensity based on measurements made at several different points on the Northern Hemisphere after Herbert H. Kimball
1). The monthly means or the monthly maxima of radiation for the different stations have been expressed as a percentage of their respective normals. Then for each month an average of these percentages has been computed, and smoothed by the formula (a+2b+c)/4, where b is the average percentage for the month in question, and a and c are the average percentages for the preceding and following months, respectively. The smoothed percenteges have been plotted in Figure 1, and also a free-hand curve that represents the variations in the smoothed monthly values has been drawn. The measurements show marked periods of depression in the solar radiation intensity, as follows:
“(1) In 1884-86, following the eruption of Krakatoa Volcano in 1883. In 1885 the solar radiation was about 20 per cent lower than in 1883 and 1887.
(2) In 1902-03, following the eruption of Pelée, Santa Maria, and Colima in 1902-with a sharp depression in solar radiation intenity at the end of 1902 by 20 per cent.
(3) In 1912-13, following the eruption of Katmai Volcano in June, 1912, which caused a decrease in solar radiation in, tensity in the following month by nearly 25 per cent.”
The researches of Abbot
2), Humnphreys
3), and others, indicate that these and earlier volcanic eruptions have been followed by a slight fall in the temperature of the earth as a whole, and especially at continental stations. Prof. T. Okada
4) calls attention to the fact that these volcanic eruptions, which sent a lot of dust into the stratosphere, decreased the surface temperature in Northern Japan and caused the failures of the rice crop.
The historical failures of the rice crops in Northern Japan since 1883 up to 1930 were as follows:
A. D. 1884, 1902, 1906, 1913.
The mean features of the failure of the crops in 1906 are quite different from, those in 1884, 1902 and 1913. After Dr. K. Suda
5), there are two essential factors in the cause of cool summer, the first is the comparatively low temperature of the cold current of Oyasiwo and the sea around Northern Japan; which caused the failures of the rice crop in 1884, 1902 and 1913. The second factor, which caused the failure of the crops in 1905, is the frequent outbreaks of the polar continental air mass from Siberia to the districts in question during summer (the critical period).
The historical failures of the rice crops in Northern Japan caused by the so-called first factor from 1883 to 1930, or
the failures of the rice crops in 1884, 1902 and 1913 correspond strictly to the three great depressions of the curve in Fig. I.On the other hand, from 1912 to 1930, or for nearly 20 years, there were no marked volcanic eruptions of an explosive character, such as throw great quantities of dust into the atmosphere. Therefore, the upper atmospheric layers, or the stratosphere, must have been unusually clear, and, in consequence, have obstructed less of the ncoming solar radiation than usual. As a result the earth as a whole experienced a slight rise in temperature. And we fortunately had successive good harvest of rice from 1914 to 1930.
Thus we can conclude that the vpriations in the measured intensity of solar radiation received at the surface of the earth are of great importanee as a meteorological factor and therefore from the forecasting point of view.
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