We analytically solve a forced linear problem of vortex Rossby waves (VRWs) associated with the vortex resiliency of tropical cyclones. We consider VRWs on a basic barotropic axisymmetric vortex. VRWs, which are initially absent, are successively forced by a vertically sheared unidirectional environmental flow. The problem is formulated in the quasigeostrophic equations, linearized about the basic vortex. The basic potential vorticity (PV) is assumed to be piecewise constant in the radial direction so that the problem can be analytically solved. The obtained solutions show the following.
When the vertical interaction (VI) between the VRWs is weak, a stationary mode (called the pseudo mode) is selectively forced and grows linearly in time, and the vortex is eventually destroyed by the environmental vertical shear. When the VI is moderate, an almost form-preserving quasi-mode (simply called the quasi mode) of the VRWs appears and precesses about a downshear-left tilt equilibrium (DSLTE). The precession does not grow and the vortex maintains vertical coherence. In particular, in the presence of the inward radial gradient of the basic PV at the critical radius, the precession damps and the quasi mode eventually approaches the DSLTE. When the VI is strong, the VRWs are simply advected by the basic angular velocity at each radius to be axisymmetrized to some extent about the DSLTE, and the vortex maintains vertical coherence.
To examine the diabatic effect near the eyewall, the solution with the basic buoyancy frequency being small in the central region and large in the outer region is also obtained. The small and large buoyancy frequencies imply strong and weak VIs, respectively. The central VRWs are simply advected by the basic vortex flow. While, the outer VRWs precess about the DSLTE just like a quasi mode, and the vortex maintains vertical coherence.
An intense rainband associated with Typhoon 1326 (Wipha) induced a fatal debris flow on Izu Oshima, Japan, on October 15-16, 2013. This rainband formed along a local front between the southeasterly humid warm air around the typhoon and the northeasterly cold air from the Kanto Plain. In this paper, the Japan Meteorological Agency Nonhydrostatic Model was optimized for the “K computer”, and ultra-high-resolution (500-250 m grid spacing) numerical simulations of the rainband with a large domain were conducted.
Two of main factors that affect a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, (1) grid spacing and (2) planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes [Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) and Deardorff (DD)], were investigated. Experiments with DD (Exps_DD: grid spacings of 2 km, 500 m, and 250 m) showed better reproducibility of the rainband position than experiments with MYNN (Exps_MYNN: grid spacings of 5 km, 2 km, and 500 m). Exps_DD simulated distinct convective-scale up/downdraft pairs on the southeast/northwest sides of the front, whereas those of Exps_MYNN were not clear. Exps_DD yielded stronger cold pools near the surface than did Exps_MYNN. These differences in the boundary layer structures likely had a large impact on the position of the front and the associated rainband. Exps_DD with the 500-m grid spacing showed the best precipitation performance according to the Fractions Skill Score.
To check other factors which influence precipitation forecast, model domain sizes, lateral boundary conditions in nesting simulations, and terrain representations were investigated. In the small domain experiments, the rainband shapes were very different from the observations. In the experiment using a nesting procedure, the deterioration of the forecast performance was acceptably reduced. The model with fine terrains reproduced the intense rain over the island. These results demonstrate that the ultra-high-resolution NWP model with a large domain has the possibility to improve predictions of heavy rain.
As an alternative approach to previous multisensor satellite evaluations for cloud system resolving models (CSRMs), a technique for precipitation clouds over the ocean of CSRMs is presented using combined infrared and microwave channels. This method quantitatively analyzes precipitation clouds using cloud-top temperatures and ice scatterings from infrared 11 μm and high frequency microwave (89.0 GHz) brightness temperatures (TBs). The TB threshold at low frequencies (18.7 GHz) is used to identify precipitation regions. This method extends a previous approach based on tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) precipitation radar which uses a narrow coverage, by incorporating a wide passive microwave sensor swath and ice cloud sensitivity.
The numerical results of the non-hydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model, NICAM, with two cloud microphysics schemes were evaluated over the tropical open ocean using this method. The scattering intensities in both simulations at 89.0 GHz were different due to the parameterizations of the snow and graupel size distributions. A bimodal snow size distribution improved the TB underestimation at 89.0 GHz. These results exhibited similar structures to the joint histograms of cloud-top temperatures and precipitation-top heights generated using the previous method; the frequencies of overestimated scattering intensities in this study and the frequencies of high precipitation-top heights above 12 km in the previous study. It was observed that the change in the snow size distribution in the cloud microphysics scheme can lead to better agreements of simulated TBs at 89.0 GHz. Furthermore, we investigated the impacts of nonspherical snow assumptions using a satellite simulator. The effect of a nonspherical snow shape in the radiative transfer model caused a smaller change in TBs at 89.0 GHz compared to the difference between the TBs of the two simulations without nonspherical assumptions.