Mortality of early infancy and children in Japan (converted into annual deaths against 1, 000 live births) is calculated month by month for 1961-67, with monthly deaths duely adjusted separately for early infants 0-1 year old and children 1-5 years old. Regarded as a time series, it is analyzed by the Census Method II X-11 (developed by the U.S. Census Bureau) for five age groups, i.e. early infants 0-1 year, and children 1-2 years, 2-3 years, 3-4 years and 4-5 years old. (Deaths of these age groups are collectively named infant mortality in this paper simply for sake of linguistic convenience.) It is thus found to show a seasonal variation peculiar to each age group.
For early infants under 1 year, for instance, (1) mortality is considerably high in winter, (2) its seasonal variation is getting smaller as a whole, and (3) it begins to curve up in summer as well as in winter, though slightly. For other age groups, however, the seasonal pattern of mortality varies differently: (1) mortality is rather high from winter through summer for 1-2 years old, and (2) it is relatively low in winter for 2-5 years old.
Then, with accidental deaths (mostly drowning) or the most frequent death cause for children omitted, infant mortality is recalculated and the time series thus adjusted is analyzed by the X-11 method for the five age groups. It is found that the seasonal variation shows little difference before and after adjustment (removal of accidental deaths) for early infants under 1 year, and that the "adjusted" variation for 1-2 years old curves up conspicuously in winter and slightly in summer, indicating the similarity in pattern and range between the first two age groups. For 2-5 years old, be it noted, the range of variation becomes tangibly smaller with short-cycle ups and downs, though somewhat peculiar changes are seen in pattern.
It might well be concluded that infants under 2 years old are liable to suffer from seasonalchanges in both winter and summer, and that children 2-5 years old are well able to endure seasonal influences, winter cold and summer heat in particular.
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