Objective : To identify the limitation of the existing method to observe the stagnation of the decline in Tuberculosis (TB) incidence. We adopt edan alternative method deduced from the original concept, i.e. decrease of reduction rates of incidences, and elucidate necessary measures to be taken.
Materials : Incidence of total TB based on newly registered patients between 1962 and 1998 in Japan.
Methods : Rates of reduction of incidences prior to the previous year's value was named ARR (Annual Rate of Reduction). It was calculated according to the following formula. ARR
t=1-Incidence
t / Incidence
t-1. Detailed ARR movements among 20 and 70 year-old patients, in whom the incidence had markedly dropped in recent years, were observed by their yearly differences as below. ΔARR
t=ARR
t ARR
t-1. Long-term trends were calculated to simplify annual movements as average ARR from the 1960's to the 1990's. They were also plotted in time-series. ARR, ΔARR, and average ARR were plotted in time series and analyzed for variation in short term and long term periods.
Results : The ARR among old age groups had suddenly dropped after 1996, however, the reasons for the reduction of the ARR in the long term had not been found. The ARR of groups in their 50's and 20's had large vertical variations after the 1980's. Negative values of ARR were found once in 40-years-old, twice in 30-years-old, and 20-years-old. In long-term observation, the ARR of the younger age groups had sharply stagnated. The ARR of age groups under 19 years showed sizable vertical fluctuations and they had often fallen under 0. In long-term observation, the ARR had declined. Comparison among age groups for average ARR showed old age groups had not stagnated on incidence after the 1970's. Stagnations of incidence reduction were more severe in younger age groups.
Conclusion : We consider, observing the long-term trend of ARR and clarifying the reasons for the stagnation of the reduction of TB incidence to be important. Furthermore, human-induced factors such as and-TB measures or random variations seemed to reflect yearly or short-term incidence level movements. Anti-TB measures for patients under 20 years of age should be upgraded, for stagnation of incidence declining was not observed in the older but in the younger.
View full abstract