国際政治
Online ISSN : 1883-9916
Print ISSN : 0454-2215
ISSN-L : 0454-2215
1979 巻, 63 号
選択された号の論文の15件中1~15を表示しています
  • 現代の安全保障
    斉藤 孝
    1979 年 1979 巻 63 号 p. 1-5,L1
    発行日: 1979/10/15
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
    Although a state is an artificial mechanism, there has been little conscious of the artificial character of state in Japan, where people identify a state as a nation. Thus it has been believed that one of the essential duties of Japanese people is to render service to national security. The recent discussions on the question of defense stems from such a way of thought that a state is the highest existence of all. However, the highest value of today rests on mankind, in stead of a state. But, from the international point of view, we are now living in the age of étatisme and how to overcome it is the most important question.
  • 現代の安全保障
    木戸 蓊
    1979 年 1979 巻 63 号 p. 6-21,L1
    発行日: 1979/10/15
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
    After the Czechoslovak Crisis in 1968, Yugoslavia has adopted the plan of “General People's defense, ” which has brought about a fundamental change in her defense policy. According to that plan, a Territorial Defense Force is organized besides the Yugoslav People's Army (the conventional force). In case of a massive blitz attack by an overwhelmingly superior big power, the role of the Yugoslav People's Army would be to delay enemy penetration sufficiently for the country to carry out total mobilization. Then, the Army and the Territorial Defense Force would wage a total resistance war against the invader. The aim of the General People's Defense is, thus, to divert a big power from his intention of aggression against Yugoslavia, by demonstrating that a blitz attack would fail and would be turned into a bog of prolonged war.
    A lot of obstacles would appear in the way of implementation of the General People's Defense. For example, the process of urbanization in postwar Yugoslavia has radically changed the conditions of partisan war which had formerly been fought mainly in villages. Furthermore, transformation of the value basis of younger generation caused by social mobilization, as well as decline of the authority of Partisan myth, will influence the conditions of defense. Nationality conflicts in multinational Yugoslavia may also constitute an obstacle to the function of the General People's Defense. For all these problems, the idea of General People's Defense offers us a very valuable example of defense conception in both political and military sense.
  • 現代の安全保障
    藤村 瞬一
    1979 年 1979 巻 63 号 p. 22-37,L2
    発行日: 1979/10/15
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
    As we are going to argue the security problem of a state, then we, generally, used to begin the analysis of her armaments, defence potential and military readiness. It, however, is not enough. Because the international relations in recent years are so complex and tangled that the range of emergency or crisis of a state can not be forecasted. So we should also discuss about the other means of security than the military one.
    I, hereto, would put a proposition that there are two ways to ensure the security of a state. One is the tangible means of security as military defence, and the other is intangible one as diplomatic negotiations or diplomatic approaches. It, I think, is a proper and wise policy that a small, minor power state, especially surrounded by the uncertain and peril circumstances, should choose and pursuit the intangible means of security.
    Austria is an appropriate example to do so.
  • 現代の安全保障
    岩島 久夫
    1979 年 1979 巻 63 号 p. 38-54,L2
    発行日: 1979/10/15
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
    The Swedish defense policy is based on the concept of “Total Defense, ” which consists of military, economic, civil and psychological defense in order to maintain its unique standing of “neutrality in war” and “non-alignment in peace time.” Sweden has been often well accepted as an ideal country of “armed neutrality, ” producing most of the weapons in its home land.
    However, the Swedish people have been forced to drive themselves on an austere road of streamlining its defense system since the Parliament decided to reduce as half as the strength of its armed forces in ten years, June 1972. The latest five-year defense plan 1977/78-81/82 fiscal year has also the same goal as the 1972 decision in principle though a promise was made to increase the annual budget somewhat for defense.
    This paper intends to analize realistically the meaning of “Total Defense, ” and the way how Sweden is making effort to “rationalize” the defense system, reducing the number as well as adopting new approaches, e. g. “high-low mix, ” the application of advanced technology, “calculated risk, ” etc. The author hopes that the other side of unique Swedish defense posture, which is intended in this paper, be reflected on the Japanese way of thinking about national security problems. The author believes that the Swedish “model” is full of useful suggestions for reorienting the Japanese defense posture toward more logical and rational line.
  • 現代の安全保障
    木村 修三
    1979 年 1979 巻 63 号 p. 55-68,L3
    発行日: 1979/10/15
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
    (1) Israel is not a militaristic state although she is a model of ‘nation-in- arms’ in the sense that military defense occupies the center of her people's life.
    (2) The reason why Israel is ‘nation-in-arms’ is due to the fact that she was surrounded by hostile countries which do not recognize her legitimacy as a state, and that she has actually fought four times with them in the past. In addition to this, holocaust analogy and ‘Masada complex’ which are latent in the psychology of Israelis, highten terror in their heart.
    (3) But, up to now, Israel has never faced the critical situation in which she could be actually annihilated. Rather, she has always won overwhelming victory in the past wars, with the only exception of the Yom Kippur War. At the same time, it is an undeniable fact that the terror of annihilation has been utilized for the justification of her intransigent policy.
    (4) Israel has tried to persuade the Arab states for their recognition of Israeli's legitimacy as a state, while totally rejecting the wish of Palestinians for the establishment of their independent state. After the end of Six-Day-War, Israel has made every efforts to secure her security on the basis of tei ritorialism by bringing out the conception of ‘defensible borders’.
    (5) If Israel wishes to secure the true security, it might be indispensable for her to recognize the Palestinians' legitimate rights of self-determination through peaceful settlement, in stead of insisting the conception of security on the basis of territorialism.
  • 現代の安全保障
    山本 武彦
    1979 年 1979 巻 63 号 p. 69-85,L3
    発行日: 1979/10/15
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
    It is now well-known fact that the over-all security policy of France under the Giscard d'Estaing Administration is under the re-building process after its taking office in 1974. Namely, the current security policy of France seems, on the one hand, to be directed towards the acceleration of cooperation and coordination in military fields with NATO, and on the other, to preserve the gaullist political stand of national independent ‘force de frappe.’ This general trend is going to be fixed, especially after ‘loi de programmation’ enacted in 1976. Moreover, the central focus of French foreign policy is now set on two major policy objectives; firstly, strengthening the cooperative relationships with the atlantic countries, specifically with the United States, and secondly, even in a détente situation, preserving the diplomatic freedom of action as in the De Gaulle era. But the practices of foreign policy in general after 1974 have made progress in line with the first policy objectives. In this sense, the Giscard's foreign policy is apparently characterized as a policy of néo-atlantisme, even if its emphasis on national independence would be continued.
    In this article, therefore, (1) the structural characteristics of Giscard's foreign policy will be analysed from the view point of the degree of French committment to the Atlantc alliance system, comparing with those of the De Gaulle era, (2) the structural and functional basis of present security policy of France will be extracted from both her nuclear and conventional weapons procurement programme and her disarmament policy in relation to European regional arms control which has been recently declared. (3) Lastly, it will be examined what is the future choice of France as medium nuclear power for survival.
  • 現代の安全保障
    小田 英郎
    1979 年 1979 巻 63 号 p. 86-99,L4
    発行日: 1979/10/15
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
    The aim of this paper is to examine why and how current African conflicts have invited the external military interventions, and what sort of collective security systems are now under planning in Africa and the West.
    In the 1970s Africa has experienced many serious conflicts between African countries, most of which grew more serious with the military interventions of the non-African Powers. Especially since the Angolan civil war, the East-West military intervention race has seemed to become normal conditions in Africa.
    One reason for this is that Africa has risen recently in strategic importance in the East-West relations, but another reason is that the OAU did not take any efficient action to check military interventions of non-African Powers. Thus a Pax Africana or the establishment of African continental jurisdiction as the highest goal of the OAU becomes more distant.
    Shortly after the second Shaba crisis in May 1978, five Western countries discussed the establishment of a Pan-African security force proposed by France. Western discussion of a Pan-African force was, however, sharply criticized by many African countries, for this showed that the West still considered Africa to be within its sphere of influence and acted accordingly.
    In order to counteract the idea of the Western brand of African security system and to ensure a Pax Africana, the OAU passed a resolution about ‘the African military force for intervention’ at the 15th summit conference in July 1978. African security, indeed, depends upon whether this African military force for intervention will be established or not.
  • 現代の安全保障
    黒柳 米司
    1979 年 1979 巻 63 号 p. 100-120,L5
    発行日: 1979/10/15
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
    Threats to the security of the ASEAN countries are identified at three distinctive levels: extra-ASEAN, intra-ASEAN, and internal (domestic). Apart from the bilateral defense cooperation on ‘non-ASEAN basis, ’ however, their security strategies are basically non-military. This is mainly due to their anxiety not to provoke their potential adversaries, especially those of Indochina.
    So far, they have managed to improve the security situations both at intra-ASEAN and domestic levels. At the extra-ASEAN level, on the other hand, things went worse. The fratricidal war among the Indochinese Communist countries coupled with the military confrontation between China and Vietnam made ASEAN worrying about possible spill-over of these conflicts.
    It may appeare inevitable when the ASEAN countries have toughened their security stance. But closer observation leads us to a different conclusion that ASEAN could be militant only at the cost of its pacifist image —its real asset— which it had painstakingly nurtured for these 12 years. And besides, the proposition that the greatest threat to the security is most likely to arise from within each member country still remains intact.
  • 現代の安全保障
    加茂 雄三
    1979 年 1979 巻 63 号 p. 121-137,L5
    発行日: 1979/10/15
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
    The idea of present collective security system in the Western Hemisphere was originally conceived in the late 1920s as a substitute for U. S. intervention policy in the Caribbean. The principles of this idea was defined and embodied through the Inter-American Conferences in the 1930s and during World War II. The Rio de janeiro Conference of 1947 produced the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance, reaffirming the various wartime principles. It outlines the principles and procedures of inter-American collective security, clearly in some respects and ambiguously in others.
    Since 1948, the inter-American collective security system has functioned, through the cases of Guatemaran and Cuban affairs, as an anti-communist alliance of which initiative was taken by the United States. The rising nationalism in Latin America in the late 1960s and early 1970s, however, led to a proposal of fundamental reforms to the Rio Treaty.
    A Protocol of Amendment to the Rio Treaty was approved in an Inter-American Conference in 1975. Rio Treaty Amendments, though not come into effect yet, are to bring substantial change to the present inter-American collective security system.
  • 現代の安全保障
    黒川 修司
    1979 年 1979 巻 63 号 p. 138-155,L6
    発行日: 1979/10/15
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
    This paper deals with arms race phenomenon from the view point of mathematical model building. In Japan very few scholar studies arms races quantitatively. By this reason I reviewed mathematical studies done abroad, before presenting my own model and empirical analysis. The outline of this paper is as follows: 1) Brief explanation of Richardson's models. 2) Asymmetry model of mine. 3) Optimal Control Theory. 4) Non-Linear models. 5) Reactive Linkage model. 6) Adding new variables.
    I present my asymmetrical model which originated from my graduation thesis of Doctor Course of Hitostubashi University. Whole empirical analysis is presented at Hiroshima conference of Peace Science Society (International), August 18-19, 1978, titled “A Simple Model of Arms Races: Richardson's Model Revisted.” Very briefly stated, I found that original basic model of Richardson lacked explanatory power in USA-USSR arms race, but in Egypt-Israel arms race it had large R2. Though basic model could not explain the variance of arms race between USA and USSR, if we introduce Δx/x and Δy/y as economic variable in each equation, we got surprizingly high R2.
    In the Richardson's model, arms race is conceived as statistically determined, however using optimal control theory, we can conceive arms race as a result of the particular policies of the decision-makers. Though optimal control theory gives us quite interesting interpretation of arms races, empirical analysis shows ambiguous finding: the parameter estimation is contradictory to our common sense of arms races. Much empirical analyses are needed, but I highly evaluate this approach promising.
    Non-linear model of Saris, W. E. and C. P. Middendorp which used the number of missiles with saturation level is introduced. The studies of Wallace, M. D. were reviewed critically as a good example of scientific study. Lucier, C. E. advanced the studies of Moll and Dennis, made one variable Organizational Politics model, and explicitely made the parameter time-varying.
    Ostrom, C. W., Jr. invented integrated model including arms race model, organizational politics, and bureaucratic politics, but for me this model gives nothing new perspective of arms races.
    Two studies of adding new variables are reviewed. Hollist, W. L. introduced economic constraint and technology as new variables, and examined those equations by four pair of nations. Wallace, M. D. found that security problems rather than strategic competition affected the change of arms expenditures between two superpowers.
    Lastly but not least important problem is to gather reliable arms expenditure data.
  • 現代の安全保障
    植田 隆子
    1979 年 1979 巻 63 号 p. 156-176,L7
    発行日: 1979/10/15
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
    After the Second World War, many regional security systems, which are based on the Charter of the United Nations, have been organized, and have played an important part in international politics. It seems that the regional security systems had been introduced as a framework for organizing peace during the inter-war period.
    Early in the 1920s, the League of Nations insisted on universalism, but the evolution of international affairs changed its attitudes toward the regional security systems. The security system based on the Locarno Treaties won the recognition of the League, and the Assembly recommended the application of the Locarno-type security pacts to other regions in September, 1926.
    The rise of the revisionist tendencies and the influence of the World Economic Crisis also paved the way to the creation of regional organizations. In the mid-1930s, the orientation which aimed at the formation of the regional security systems resulted in the conclusion of the Pact of Organization of the Little Entente, the formation of the Balkan Entente, and the Baltic Entente. France and the Soviet Union began negotiations to create an Eastern Locarno at the end of 1933.
    From the historical viewpoint, this paper examines the formations of the above-mentioned regional security systems by using the official documents of France, Great Britain, Germany, the Soviet Union and the United States, and the Japanese Foreign Ministry Archives. They aimed at the maintenance of the territorial status quo or pursued the restoration of the balance of power by organizing the regional security systems. However, they could only create the regional security systems within the framework of the League of Nations. In conclusion, the formation of the regional security systems in the mid-1930s shows that the regional security system as an institution had become established as a framework in organizing peace.
  • 百瀬 宏
    1979 年 1979 巻 63 号 p. 177-187
    発行日: 1979/10/15
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 安藤 次男
    1979 年 1979 巻 63 号 p. 188-190
    発行日: 1979/10/15
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 山田 敬信
    1979 年 1979 巻 63 号 p. 190-193
    発行日: 1979/10/15
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 佐藤 栄一
    1979 年 1979 巻 63 号 p. 196
    発行日: 1979/10/15
    公開日: 2010/09/01
    ジャーナル フリー
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