In order to discuss thoroughly the movement of population, one must resort to some numeral means of expression. But in discussions of this kind so far we could find very few such expressions (increasing rate, etc.). With the object of studying the movement of population in Japan accurately and minutely, the writer tried to analyze morphometrically the movement of population between the years 1898-1930. He believes that this report will be helpful in bringing out in clearer manner many of the features in his first report that were expressed merely in rates of increase.
A. The morphometric method of analysis.
(I) Materials.
(i) Census. The censuses used in the report cover the following years: 1898, 1903, 1908, 1913, 1918, 1920, 1925, 1930. Of these we can use with confidence only three censuses of the last decade. For the. five censuses between 1898 aud 1918 the estimate for errors is 5%.
(ii) District and Unit. The districts covered in the report comprise the whole of Japan proper (except Hokkaido) and all administrative cities, including 544 investigation units, or “Gun, ” which are administrative units of medium size in Japan.
(2) Method.
The writer's method of analyzing morphometrically the materials above mentioned is as follows:
(i) The whole period (1898-1930) is divided into two subperiods, 1898-1918 and 1920-1930.
(ii) The trends of movement. These are classified into five kinds for each subperiod, comparing each of them with the following three elements: increasing rate in. eaeh subperiod, mode of movement, and ratio of increasing rate of each subperiod. These are indicated by numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 to simplifying the expression. The following table roughly shows the process.
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(iii) By putting together these.five trends into two suhperiods, we obtain the: following twenty-five permutations, which the writer calls. indication numbers of movement.
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I
1 shows that in the two subperiods the trends were r, and means “successive rapid increase”. 21 is obtained by combining trend z in the former period with trend I of the later period and means “from moderate increase upward to rapid increase”.
(iv) These twenty-five indication numbers are synthesized into twelve types for brevity. By means of these twelve types the writer discusses the movement of population morphometrically.
Types of movement of population
I………I
1……………………Successive rapid increase.
II……2
1•3
1•4
1•5
1…………Formerly lower, now rapid increase.
III……2
2……………………Successive moderate increase.
lower, now moderate increase.
IV……3
2•4
2•5
2……………Formerly lower, now moderate increase.
V……I
2•I
3•I
4•I
5•2
4•2
5…Formrly higher increase, now declining.
VI……2
3……………………Formerly moderate, now slow increase.
VII…3
3……………………Successive slow increase.
VIII…3
4•3
5••••••Formerly slow increase, now halting.
IX……4
3……………………Formerly halted, now slow increase.
X……4
4……………………Stationary.
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