Models based on the diffusion equation have been developed by Hirano (1975, 1976). The purpose of this paper is to test one of these models by computing hillslope form changes over time in an area in Hokkaido for which tephro-chronological data are available. Therefore computed profiles can be compared with actual profiles whose absolute ages are known. The equation used is
_??_(2)
in which Ut=rate of change of height with respect to time at a given point X; a is a coefficient which controls the rate of slope degradation; and Uxx is slope curvature.
The analytical solution of the differential equation (2), with the initial value U (0, X)=0, (X < 0); U(0, X)=U0, (X > 0), is given by the following integral:
_??_(5) 2
Elevation of a given point X with time t is obtained from the integral of the normal probability density function with mean p=0, and variance a2 =2 a t. Least-squares method is used to obtain a “best” value for coefficient a which maximizes the level of agreement between actual profile and computed profile. Time t is considered to be equal to the age of terrace surface at the cliff base.
A value of the standard deviation a can be also read off a slope profile plotted on normal probability paper. The value a at time t is calculated as follows:
_??_(7)
This method produces a value of coefficient a which is sufficiently accurate in the present context.
All the sampled slopes in unconsoliated fan gravel faced south but they differed in cliff height and in the period of time elapsed since the cessation of river erosion (Nogami, 1977). But they gave us almost the same results.
A value of coefficient a, equal to 5.9 × 10
-3 m
2/yr, with standard deviation 1.5 × 10-s, was obtained from analytical solution and least squares method, as an average value for the 16 profiles. And the values ranged between 3.5 × 10
-3 and 2.2 × 10
-3.
Agreement between theoretical profiles and measured profiles is generally good, with the exception of profiles deformed by slumping. Therefore, the preliminary results suggest that the model can be used to simulate slope-form changes over time according to equation (2). There are, however, two unresolved problems concerning the use of this model. Firstly, the agreement between the model predictions and actual slope forms becomes progressively weaker as the elapsed time approaches 105 years. This can be attributed to the increase in the length of the concave segment over time in actual slopes when compared with model slopes. Secondly, the value of coefficient a depends not only on climate and rock properties but also on the initial condition Uo (original cliff height).
These problems should, be taken into account in future attempts to model slope form, but their solution is beyond the scope of this paper.
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