A chronological study in the seasonal variation of mortality since 1900 in Japan reveals the existence of some quantitative regularities in human mortality as first discovered by J. Graunt (1620-74): 1) Deaths occurred most frequently in the hot months (summer concentration) late in the 19th century, 2) the summer peak steadily flattened, on the other hand mortality gradually increased in winter in the first decades of the current century (bimodal variation curve with the steady transfer of peak from summer to winter), and 3) the winter summit has been getting higher as contrasted to the disappearance of summer time maximum (winter concentration) in the past decades. The writer thus concluded temporarily that deaths might take place increasingly in the cold months in proportion to the development of human culture.
The writer's further studies reveal similar regularities in vital statistics of 10 odd countries. In the West European countries, the death peak now is seen in winter, though chronological changes differ from those of Japan. In contrast, deaths occur most frequently in the hot months in Egypt. No country with the bimodal curve is yet found probably because vital statistics are unavailable for most newly-rising countries. In the United States and the Scandinavian countries, be it noted, signs of “deseasonality” of mortality are seen: the influence of seasonal changes upon deaths is apparently disappearing. In this paper, the writer wants to put particular emphasis on this new phenomenon or chronologically the fourth stage of development which every country may reach sooner or later, though with some different features of its own.
I Changes in Seasonal Disease Calendars According to the seasonal disease calendars prepared by the writer, deaths from diseases took place most frequently in summer in the last decades of the 19th century in Japan. Even old age ailments took a heavy toll twice a year or in summer and winter. A change began to appear in the 1920's, and a complete turnover occurred in the postwar pattern of seasonal disease calendars: most of the diseases caused frequent deaths in the cold months, whereas dysentery and enteritis alone raged in the hot months. In one word, mortality got concentrated in winter.
For international comparison, seasonal disease calendars are prepared for some countries for which mortality statistics by disease are available. In England and Wales, the winter concentration of mortality was prominent in the 1950's, and this was the case with France, Germany and Denmark though some special features were seen for each of them. Strikingly contrasted to this pattern was the very high summer peak of mortality for Egypt. The United States, however, shows little indication of the winter concentration.
From the foregoing, it might well be concluded that the summer concentration of mor tality gradually turned into the winter concentration pattern in proportion to the development of human culture (progress of medical techniques, development of new drugs, improvement of the medical service system, elevation of the living standard, etc.), and that the gap in mortality rate among various disease got wider and wider. Thanks to human efforts for suppression of ailments and improvement of environments, the summer peak steadily flattened whereas the winter summit, if any, has got relatively prominent. It has proved rather easy to overcome the high death maximum in summer, but it appears to be rather difficult to reduce mortality in winter.
II Types of Seasonal Variation of Total Mortality
Total mortality in the 1950's curves up sharply in winter, with a low peak in summer, for England, France, Germany and Italy. A similar curve, summer reversed with winter, exists also for New Zealend in the Southern Hemisphere. For Egypt, on the other hand, a prominent peak appears in the hot months.
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