Indonesia has been the fourth most populous country worldwide during the last three decades. Since the Indonesian government began to proactively promote a family planning program in the 1960s, the total fertility rate (TFR) of Indonesia decreased from 5.61 in 1971 to 2.27 in 2000. Unexpectedly, the TFR increased to 2.41 in 2010 despite the fact that the Indonesian government intended to reduce the TFR to a replacement level by 2010. In this study, by establishing four scenarios of future fertility changes in Indonesia, we projected the population size and structure of the country through 2100. In Scenario S0, the TFR was assumed to remain constant at the current level. In Scenarios S1, S2, and S3, the TFR was assumed to constantly decrease to the replacement level (2.1), to 75% of the current level, and to 50% of current level, respectively, by 2025. In Scenarios S1, S2, and S3, the Indonesian population will begin to decline by the year 2100, while it will continuously increase until the year 2100 in Scenario S0. Indonesia will become an “aging society” by 2025 in all four scenarios and will become an “aged society” in the years 2055, 2047, and 2042 in Scenarios S1, S2, and S3, respectively. The rate of aging in Indonesia will be slower than that in other Asian countries. A “population bonus”, defined as when the working-age population accounts for more than 65% of the total population, will last until around 2070 in Scenarios S1, S2, and S3.
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