本稿は,点分布図における空間クラスターの知覚を記述する定量的モデルを提案するものである.地理学において,点のクラスターは最も基本的な空間概念の一つであり,その分析に際しては分布図を用いたクラスターの観察が必ずといってよいほど行われる.しかしながら,クラスターの知覚は点の表示方法に大きく依存するため,場合によってはクラスターが見出しにくいという問題をもたらす.したがって,効率的な分析を行うには,点分布図の表示とクラスター知覚の関係を正確に把握し,その都度適切な表示方法を選択する必要がある.そこで本稿では,表示された点分布図とクラスター知覚の関係を定量的に記述するため,確率モデルに基づいた点クラスター知覚モデルを提案する.ここでは点の局所密度という概念を導入し,点対がクラスターとして知覚される確率を定式化する.さらに,提案したモデルを実際の実験結果に適用し,その有効性と問題点を検証する.

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近年のわが国では,人口高齢化の問題が社会的な重要課題として認識され始めている.本稿では,広島県における高齢者福祉サービスのニーズと供給についてとらえ,さらに両者の関係を地域的公正の観点から検討した.ニーズの把握に際しては, Bradshawによるニーズ類型をもとに,客観的・主観的ニーズを用いた.その結果,寝たきり高齢者数から見た客観的ニーズとサービス供給の関係は無相関であったが,利用(希望)者数から見た主観的ニーズとサービス供給の間の相関係数からは,比較的高い水準の地域的公正が認められた.さらに,総体的な高齢者福祉サービスの優位性を市町村別に見ると,互いに隣接する市町村間で著しい差異を示すケースがいくつかあることがわかった.こうした点は,市町村間でのサービス格差が注目される中で,大きな問題になることが予想される.また,今後は客観的ニーズとサービス供給の適切な対応も必要となろう.

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In this paper, the regional differences in fertility in Spain are analyzed statistically in relation to the level of urbanization and the socioeconomic composition of the population, with special attention to the baby-boom period around the 1960s. The main sources of data are the Censo de Población and the Movimiento Natural de la Población Española, published by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística.
First, the 50 provinces of Spain were classified into four groups based on the evolution of the Index of General Fertility from 1887 to 1991, an indicator of period fertility extensively used in the European Fertility Project of Princeton University, This classification has been found useful in determining the process of fertility decline in which the low fertility area, initially limited to the northeast part of the country, was extended from the northern coast to the vast central region, and then to the south.
Second, the complete cohort fertility of the population born in 1921-1925 was estimated for the provinces, the urban and rural areas of each province, and the 81 principal cities. The indicator used for this estimation was the mean number of children ever born to women aged between 45 and 49 years in 1970. Variance analysis applied to the disparities of cohort fertility between the provinces and those detected between the urban and rural areas shows that the variance, although statistically significant in both senses, is much more important between provinces.
Although cohort fertility is commonly lower in urban than in rural areas, those cities that experienced a high rate of in-migration show higher cohort fertility than the rural hinterlands. This fact, along with the disparate values of period fertility by geographic origin among women living in Barcelona, suggests that the in-migrants contribute to raising the fertility by the fertility behavior of their native site.
The cohort fertility in the principal cities has no significant association with the educational level or with occupational structure, except in the macro-regions around Barcelona and Madrid, where they show a loose association. This association, however, seems spurious, given the almost absolute absence of this kind of relation in the other parts of the country. It is more reasonable to suppose that the fertility in these two macro-regions is more directly related to the rate of in-migration, rather than to the two socioeconomic variables considered here.
The results of this analysis suggest that, although urbanization has some degree of influence on the fertility, regional differences in fertility in Spain are difficult to explain exclusively by the level of urbanization and the socioeconomic composition of the population. Further research is required to determine the cultural and regional variables with special relevance to fertility behavior and to analyze the impact of migration on the fertility of migrants.

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