To clarify the major factors affecting recurrence of superficial bladder cancer, statistical analyses were performed on information available at the initial treatment of 151 patients with pTa or pTl transitional cell carcinomas. The factors included in the present analysis were sex, age, bladder irritative symptoms, interval between initial symptoms and first consultation, location, size, number, shape-I (papillary or not), shape-II (pedunculated or sessile), histological grade and stage of tumors, and smoking history. A multivariate analysis using Cox's proportional hazards model was applied to evaluate the relative contribution of various factors to recurrence. The major findings were as follows:
(1) The 1-, 3- and 5-year recurrence rates for all 151 patients were 27.9%, 44.0% and 51.5%, respectively. The 5-year recurrence rates were 77.2% for multiple tumors and 36.9% for single tumors with a hazard ratio (HR: from Cox's proportional hazards model) of 3.56; Shape-II (sessile, 60.3% vs. pedunculated, 39.4%) with HR of 2.57; stage (pTl, 59.4% vs. pTa, 49.0%) with HR of 2.05; age (70 years and more, 60.1% vs. less than 70 years, 49.4%) with HR of 1.91, size (larger than 1cm, 69.1% vs. 1cm and less, 37.1%) with HR of 1.68 (: p<0.05, : p<0.001).
(2) A stepwise selection of these factors was made, based on the relative magnitude of their contribution to recurrence by Cox's proportional hazards model. This revealed that the most important factor forr recurrence was the number of tumors, followed by size, shape-II, smoking history, age, and stage in this order. The first three of these were statistically significant (: p<0.05, : p<0.001). A model composed of these three factors showed a corrected hazard ratio of 3.08 in multiple tumors, 1.76 in tumors larger than 1cm and 1.84 in sessile tumors.
(3) Recurrence-free curves were compared in four groups of patients: those without any characteristics of multiple, larger than 1cm and sessile tumors; those with any one of the above; those with any two of them; and those with all of them. This comparison clearly showed the four groups had different survival; this indicated that the above three characteristics were definite determinants of recurrence.
In conclusion, since patients with multiple, large and sessile tumors seen at the initial treatment have a larger probability of recurrence, these three characteristics should be taken into consideration when planning prophylactic intravesical chemotherapy and immunotherapy.
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